Summary

Despite polling indicating a competitive race, Trump and his allies continue to falsely claim that the only way he can lose is through widespread voter fraud. This claim is based on his false belief that he did not lose the 2020 election and his 2024 campaign’s foundation.

However, several factors, including Trump’s feuds with Republicans, the RNC’s abandonment of efforts to make inroads with nonwhite voters, and the impact of the overturning of Roe v. Wade, could lead to a Trump loss, which he has primed his supporters to be ready for without cause.