Remember: the EC vote is certified by the new Congress, whose term begins Jan 3. The Republicans currently hold the House and would certainly vote to install Trump in the event of a contingent election, but who knows if they’ll still have control after Jan 3.
But if they somehow manage to delay the resolution of tight House races that would provide a Democratic majority beyond Jan 3, it might be possible for the Republicans to temporarily steal control. On top of that, if Republicans did have control they’d have to pick a Speaker – it would not automatically be Mike Johnson – in order for the Presidential certification on Jan 6 to happen, and that itself could be a huge problem.
In other words, unless the Democrats win back the House, with enough margins to be indisputable even in MAGA-Federalist-Society-controlled courts, it’s entirely possible that all Hell breaks loose.
In a contingent election, control of the House doesn’t matter, as each state gets one vote regardless of House delegation size. Interestingly, a majority of the state’s House delegation has to vote for the same candidate in order for that candidate to be awarded the state’s vote, so if a state with 2 House reps had each voting for a different candidate, that state doesn’t get counted.
Control matters insofar as the House can’t deal with the matter at all until a Speaker is chosen, and the Republicans may very well be incapable (or unwilling) to choose one by Jan 6. (See second link in my previous comment.) Edit: and to be clear, this aspect of the issue would be a problem whether the Presidential election certification is contingent or not.
Also, if some Representatives for a given state are not yet seated because their election is still disputed, it could affect the partisan balance and therefore the decision of the state delegation (edit: if it’s a contingent election).
Copying my comment from the cross-posted thread:
Remember: the EC vote is certified by the new Congress, whose term begins Jan 3. The Republicans currently hold the House and would certainly vote to install Trump in the event of a contingent election, but who knows if they’ll still have control after Jan 3.
But if they somehow manage to delay the resolution of tight House races that would provide a Democratic majority beyond Jan 3, it might be possible for the Republicans to temporarily steal control. On top of that, if Republicans did have control they’d have to pick a Speaker – it would not automatically be Mike Johnson – in order for the Presidential certification on Jan 6 to happen, and that itself could be a huge problem.
In other words, unless the Democrats win back the House, with enough margins to be indisputable even in MAGA-Federalist-Society-controlled courts, it’s entirely possible that all Hell breaks loose.
In a contingent election, control of the House doesn’t matter, as each state gets one vote regardless of House delegation size. Interestingly, a majority of the state’s House delegation has to vote for the same candidate in order for that candidate to be awarded the state’s vote, so if a state with 2 House reps had each voting for a different candidate, that state doesn’t get counted.
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Control matters insofar as the House can’t deal with the matter at all until a Speaker is chosen, and the Republicans may very well be incapable (or unwilling) to choose one by Jan 6. (See second link in my previous comment.) Edit: and to be clear, this aspect of the issue would be a problem whether the Presidential election certification is contingent or not.
Also, if some Representatives for a given state are not yet seated because their election is still disputed, it could affect the partisan balance and therefore the decision of the state delegation (edit: if it’s a contingent election).