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"Voters in liberal strongholds across the country, from city centers to suburban stretches, failed to show up to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris at the levels they had for Joseph R. Biden Jr. four years earlier, contributing significantly to her defeat by Donald Trump,” the New York Times reports.
“Counties with the biggest Democratic victories in 2020 delivered 1.9 million fewer votes for Ms. Harris than they had for Mr. Biden. The nation’s most Republican-heavy counties turned out an additional 1.2 million votes for Mr. Trump this year, according to the analysis of the 47 states where the vote count is largely complete.”
“The drop-off spanned demographics and economics. It was clear in counties with the highest job growth rates, counties with the most job losses and counties with the highest percentage of college-educated voters. Turnout was down, too, across groups that are traditionally strong for Democrats — including areas with large numbers of Black Christians and Jewish voters.”
I think it’s less lack of voter turnout and more that 2020 pushed vote by mail hard due to the covid restrictions. That ended up inflating the turnout, and I’m sure you know, when more people vote, Democrats win.
Without that same VBM push, turnout dropped.
2020:
Biden - 81,283,501
Trump - 74,223,975
2024* (so far):
Trump - 74,846,364
Harris - 71,259,005
Trump never relied on vote by mail, and, in fact, told his supporters not to do it. His numbers didn’t effectively change +622,389 out of 74,846,364 = +0.8%
Joe DID and now we see the results… 10 million lost votes.
But look at states who are 100% vote by mail already:
Oregon 2020:
Biden - 1,340,383
Trump - 958,448
Oregon 2024* (so far):
Harris - 1,155,481
Trump - 861,020
But in a state like PA that went hard for vote by mail in 2020 and not so much in 2024:
Pennsylvania 2020:
Biden - 3,458,229
Trump - 3,377,674
PA 2024:
Trump - 3,511,865
Harris - 3,366,829
Harris is dead last out of all 4 numbers.
Your numbers don’t show that it’s vote by mail. Kamala lost ~ 13% compared to Biden nationwide and in your example vote by mail state Oregon she lost ~14%
California isn’t in yet but doing some rough math she looks like she’ll get ~9 million total compared to Biden who got over 11 million, so around an 18% drop in another very heavy vote by mail state.