Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs will dent U.S. economic growth going into 2026, said Morgan Stanley’s chief global economist Seth Carpenter.

President-elect Trump has stated that he intends to impose a blanket tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports, along with extra tariffs ranging from 60% to 100% on goods imported from China. During the September Presidential debate, he described this approach as a means to extract funds from competing countries.

There is also a question of when and how swiftly these tariffs get implemented. In the event that they are enacted all at once, they could result in a “big negative shock” to the economy, Carpenter told CNBC’s Sri Jegarajah on the sidelines of Morgan Stanley’s annual Asia Pacific Summit in Singapore.

Carpenter, who maintained Morgan Stanley’s base case of these tariffs being spread over 2025, said they would lead to higher inflation.

“Then into 2026, we think growth starts to come down a great deal in the U.S. because of those tariffs and some of the other policies,” he cautioned.

“Very clear, tariffs push up inflation. Very clear, tariffs are a drag on growth for the U.S., not just for the countries that the tariffs are put on,” Carpenter added.

  • @just_another_person
    link
    -46 days ago

    He won’t do it. He wanted to get out of jail. That’s it.

    He won’t be able to do any of the dumb shit he promised with Executive Order alone.

    • Irremarkable
      link
      fedilink
      206 days ago

      What has SCOTUS possibly done to show that they won’t rubber stamp each and every thing he does.

      Edit: That’s not to say the tariffs are going to go through. I’m not sure they will. Rule #1 is you do not fuck with the bag and this is just about the definition of fucking with the bag

      • @just_another_person
        link
        -76 days ago

        I’m saying by “EXECUTIVE ORDER ALONE” it is not possible. It’s really fucking clear in my comment.

        • Irremarkable
          link
          fedilink
          55 days ago

          There is no practical difference when SCOTUS will rubber stamp things

          Practical differences are what matter.

          • @just_another_person
            link
            -25 days ago

            No. What’s good for the Goose, is good for the Gander.

            For every dumb fucking ruling by a rigged SCOTUS, there is another case waiting. They can’t continue and expect to be legitimately arguing their own idiot decisions.

            • @MutilationWave
              link
              25 days ago

              I was on copium for a while, now that I’m clean I just deal with life using regular drugs.

    • @halcyoncmdr
      link
      English
      86 days ago

      He won’t be able to do any of the dumb shit he promised with Executive Order alone.

      He won’t need to. He’s got Congress and the Supreme Court to do what he wants.

    • @[email protected]
      link
      fedilink
      English
      66 days ago

      doomsday scenario number 6:

      senate takes the ‘nuclear option’ on killing filibuster (but reinstates it before midterms) with just a simple majority.

      house and senate pass every stupid fucking thing donvict has pulled out of his diaper, everything in project 2025, and anything else the masters-of-the-strings want.

      • @just_another_person
        link
        -26 days ago

        Democrats were literally saying this was an option 6 months ago, as well as expanding and packing SCOTUS. I 100% expect these pieces of shit to take that note and do it instead because they have the opportunity.

        Who are we blaming about it though?