Summary
Canadian leaders, particularly Ontario Premier Doug Ford, are considering retaliatory measures against Trump’s tariff threats, including restricting U.S. alcohol imports and cutting electricity exports to 1.5 million American homes.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has remained relatively calm despite Trump’s provocations, but Ontario’s response signals rising tensions.
Analysts warn that Trump’s tariff policies could provoke significant economic retaliation from Canada, disrupting key cross-border energy supplies and trade.
The situation highlights the potential fallout from escalating U.S.-Canada trade disputes under the incoming administration.
It’s up to the oil companies whether they drill more and they don’t want to because it would cause prices to go down.
“I don’t know that there’s an opportunity to unleash a lot of production in the near term… I don’t think today that production in the U.S. is constrained.” - ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods (source)
True. And there’s only so much the US can do. At the end of the day, OPEC can just raise or lower production to destroy any US policy.
We’re a net exporter of oil now - 10.15 million bbl per day vs 8.51 imported. And now only 16% of that comes from OPEC countries vs 52% from Canada. tl;dr OPEC has nowhere near the influence on our oil prices it once had.
The margin of profit on tar sands oil is razor thin. So Canada needs to be kept happy or we’re back under Saudi Arabias sway. Trump will not keep Canada happy.
Maybe not the same influence they once had, but every one of those producers can destroy the market on their own if they wanted to. That said, oil will overall be far less important over the coming decades as transportation and manufacturing move away from fossil fuels. Europe is very far along the way on that already.