I mean in terms of percentages.

And I don’t necessarily mean three full terms. 2.5 terms or 2.1 terms or anything nontrivially more than 2 (like, 10 minutes more doesn’t count) would qualify.

  • @Zak
    18•1 day ago

    10%.

    • Chance he runs for vice president and wins, with the presidential candidate resigning promptly: 5%
    • Chance he cancels or significantly delays election: 3%
    • Chance he successfully refuses to leave office after election using force: 2%

    Here are all the ways that doesn’t happen:

    • Chance he dies of natural causes: 70% - it’s about one in three per year for a man in his early 80s, which would give us 1-0.66^4 = 81% for four years, but he has access to the best possible medical care
    • Chance he runs for vice president and wins, with the presidential candidate promising to resign promptly, and is betrayed: 10%
    • Chance he attempts to cancel or delay the election and fails: 10%
    • Chance he refuses to leave office after election and is removed: 10%

    These things have a less than 1% chance:

    • Constitutional amendment
    • Supreme court allows him to run for a third term in violation of the unambiguous text of the constitution
    • @[email protected]English
      9•22 hours ago

      Chance he cancels or significantly delays election: 3%

      The bird flu is starting to look like it could be a serious threat. Given that he already attempted an insurrection once, I wouldn’t put it past him to intentionally turn it into another pandemic, then generously decide that this time he’s going to take it seriously and lock everything down in 2028 (while simultaneously banning all states from using mail-in ballots).

      • @[email protected]
        1•14 hours ago

        Would be difficult for him to do so via any legal means. Each individual States run elections. They are not federally run, even for federal offices per the US constitution

        Election days are similarly set by the US constitution

        The bar to change that is quite high with 2/3 of congress + 3/4 of state legislatures to ratify. And while Supreme Court is insane, they did recently ruled 6-3 against the insane independent state legislature theory (which would have meant even state courts could not rule on anything election related) which is related to the exact piece of the constitution

    • @Stovetop
      8•24 hours ago

      Chance he runs for vice president and wins, with the presidential candidate promising to resign promptly, and is betrayed: 10%

      For this one, it also depends on how the Supreme Court rules on the 12th amendment. That amendment states that anyone who is unqualified to be president is likewise unqualified to be vice president, but there is some uncertainty as to whether or not it only applies to people unqualified to be president or if it includes people unqualified to run as president.

      I’d say 90% chance the conservative-stacked Supreme Court side with Trump because the conservative justices are originalists and the 12th’s interaction with the 22nd was not intended when the 12th was written, but 10% chance they decide he’s unqualified to be Vice President so as to keep the door closed for Dems who might try the same thing.

      • @Zak
        6•23 hours ago

        It’s the wording of the 22nd amendment that makes this a possible outcome (emphasis added):

        No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice

        It could have said “no person shall serve as president for more than two terms” or similar wording, but it does not. I agree with you that conservative justices are likely to use this interpretation.