- Ukraine says it has liberated four villages in the south-east, calling these the first settlements won back from Russia since Kyiv’s counter-offensive began
- On Monday morning, officials reported that “the national flag is once again waving” over Storozhove, in the Donetsk region
- A day earlier, footage showed Ukrainian troops celebrating in Blahodatne and Neskuchne - and a minister said nearby Makarivka was also taken
- The settlements are relatively small - and Moscow is yet to confirm any retreat
- The Institute for the Study of War backs up Kyiv’s claims, saying Ukraine captured “multiple settlements” along the frontline over the weekend
- On Saturday, President Zelensky acknowledged that the long-awaited counter-offensive was under way
I have little trust that an “end” that leaves Russia occupying a large portion of Ukraine will last. It’s a message to Russia’s leadership that invasions will be rewarded. First Georgia, then Crimea, then Ukraine more broadly. Make some allegations about a Russian minority being persecuted and it’s time to roll in the tanks! That probably a large reason why Europe has been willing to arm Ukraine to the teeth: to send a message that the West is serious this time after wimping out in the case of Georgia and Crimea.
That’s literally how we got here. Russia has been appeasing NATO as it deploys nuclear capabilities on it’s border in many countries. This most recent move by NATO, under US direction, to establish nuclear capabilities on the Ukraine border could no longer be managed through appeasement and diplomacy. It’s not like Russia hasn’t tried, it’s not like the US didn’t know Ukraine was a red line for Russian national security. Russia has been appeasing US nuclear expansion for decades, and slowly demonstrating their willingness to fight back. Now they’re in a proxy conflict where the US is pumping Ukraine full of the equipment Ukraine needs to send out soldiers. If the US hadn’t done that, Ukraine would have far more people still alive and would have capitulated far earlier and begun negotiations. This is the same pattern we see every time the US pumps up a proxy, the proxy suffers the most.