Head of Ukraine’s national foreign intelligence service – “We have studied…the strengths and weaknesses of the enemy. We are aware of Russia’s long-term plans…at least until 2030.”
Which is probably why they’re trying to bid up Ukraine with the US using their own minerals.
Edit: Although some are suggesting this article is just propaganda, Russia’s main challenge is that their economy is on the brink of failing and domestic support becomes a question if that happens. From a skim that appears to be the main thrust of it.
Their economy has allegedly been on the brink of failing for the past three years according to US state department talking points. Surely any day now the Ruskies will surrender…
I actually doubt the US state department ever said that, exactly. They’re diplomats, are very careful about their wording, and are unlikely to promise something they aren’t totally sure about.
I’m going by the trajectory of the now >20% interest rate, the fact they’re politically covering for massive military spending with massive handouts, the amount of assets still in Russia and the recent reports of a surge in bankruptcies. I don’t know if it will be two weeks or a year, but they can’t keep this up the same way forever.
The economy, while struggling, is far from collapsing and popular support is almost a non issue. Russia is not drafting. Without a draft, most soldiers joining do so voluntarily, so there is not as much resistance. They have to pay a lot of money to make people sign up to go fight a war and the extra competition for labor (army vs factories) is increasing wages in many categories. The ones most unhappy about the situation are the oligarchs who have to pay for all of it. So unfortunately, betting on Russia somehow collapsing anytime soon is probably a loosing bet.
The more likely bottleneck for Russia is equipment and volunteers for the Army. Their Soviets stockpiles are starting to run low. And, if Russia runs out of people willing to sign up for money, they may be forced to either end to war or start drafting with all the issues that brings.
I base this mostly on Perun YT channel, that has many videos doing in depth analysis of various aspects of the war.
This is what I mean - they need money to pay for their military industry, ever-scarcer volunteers and a bunch of feel-good handouts like cheap mortgages on top of it. They’ve basically just been burning the economic furniture to make that happen (including the old Soviet stockpiles), and at some point raising the interest rate will get diminishing returns. Eventually, their spending is going to come up against what they actually physically have and lose, and then they’ll get hyperinflation.
It’s been suggested they could just muscle through that, and I can’t rule it out, but Russia is not Nazi Germany or even Venezuela. Putin’s regime has pretty much discouraged ideology of any kind in favour of cynical patronage, so once all the rubles they have to slosh around are worthless they’re kind of in uncharted territory.
GDP can increase during a war, but that’s not as beneficial as growth during peace. After all the military equipment produced doesn’t last long or provides much long term value to the economy. A civilian truck, excavator, or train locomotive can create more value for an economy for decades. A trank or artillery piece will only last for a few months during war and only causes destruction, no creation. So yeah, nominally the economy might increase, but all that labor might be for nothing in the end.
It has been very impressive how Russia transformed its economy and circumvented sanctions. Production of military equipment is high and still increasing in parts. Goods for domestic consumption are also doing okay and standard of living hasn’t fallen much.
Of course none of this is sustainable and has only been achievable by all kinds of tricks, but for now it works.
At a minimum we can say that Russia has transitioned pretty well into a war economy. It is an economic transition that is going very nice for the working class. For a long time OSINT has shown nearly depleted reserves of equipment, but they have gone very light infantry. I think it is concerning they might eek out a pyrrhic victory. It is hard to say how much longer they can stretch what is left.
Which is probably why they’re trying to bid up Ukraine with the US using their own minerals.
Edit: Although some are suggesting this article is just propaganda, Russia’s main challenge is that their economy is on the brink of failing and domestic support becomes a question if that happens. From a skim that appears to be the main thrust of it.
Their economy has allegedly been on the brink of failing for the past three years according to US state department talking points. Surely any day now the Ruskies will surrender…
I actually doubt the US state department ever said that, exactly. They’re diplomats, are very careful about their wording, and are unlikely to promise something they aren’t totally sure about.
I’m going by the trajectory of the now >20% interest rate, the fact they’re politically covering for massive military spending with massive handouts, the amount of assets still in Russia and the recent reports of a surge in bankruptcies. I don’t know if it will be two weeks or a year, but they can’t keep this up the same way forever.
The economy, while struggling, is far from collapsing and popular support is almost a non issue. Russia is not drafting. Without a draft, most soldiers joining do so voluntarily, so there is not as much resistance. They have to pay a lot of money to make people sign up to go fight a war and the extra competition for labor (army vs factories) is increasing wages in many categories. The ones most unhappy about the situation are the oligarchs who have to pay for all of it. So unfortunately, betting on Russia somehow collapsing anytime soon is probably a loosing bet.
The more likely bottleneck for Russia is equipment and volunteers for the Army. Their Soviets stockpiles are starting to run low. And, if Russia runs out of people willing to sign up for money, they may be forced to either end to war or start drafting with all the issues that brings.
I base this mostly on Perun YT channel, that has many videos doing in depth analysis of various aspects of the war.
Yeah, that’s one of my main sources too.
This is what I mean - they need money to pay for their military industry, ever-scarcer volunteers and a bunch of feel-good handouts like cheap mortgages on top of it. They’ve basically just been burning the economic furniture to make that happen (including the old Soviet stockpiles), and at some point raising the interest rate will get diminishing returns. Eventually, their spending is going to come up against what they actually physically have and lose, and then they’ll get hyperinflation.
It’s been suggested they could just muscle through that, and I can’t rule it out, but Russia is not Nazi Germany or even Venezuela. Putin’s regime has pretty much discouraged ideology of any kind in favour of cynical patronage, so once all the rubles they have to slosh around are worthless they’re kind of in uncharted territory.
Russia’s economy is better than before the SMO started. All media in the US and those of US-controled/couped countries are controlled by the CIA.
GDP can increase during a war, but that’s not as beneficial as growth during peace. After all the military equipment produced doesn’t last long or provides much long term value to the economy. A civilian truck, excavator, or train locomotive can create more value for an economy for decades. A trank or artillery piece will only last for a few months during war and only causes destruction, no creation. So yeah, nominally the economy might increase, but all that labor might be for nothing in the end.
It has been very impressive how Russia transformed its economy and circumvented sanctions. Production of military equipment is high and still increasing in parts. Goods for domestic consumption are also doing okay and standard of living hasn’t fallen much.
Of course none of this is sustainable and has only been achievable by all kinds of tricks, but for now it works.
What’s the base interest rate in russia again?
Oh, that’s right. 21%pa
Very healthy. much strong.
At a minimum we can say that Russia has transitioned pretty well into a war economy. It is an economic transition that is going very nice for the working class. For a long time OSINT has shown nearly depleted reserves of equipment, but they have gone very light infantry. I think it is concerning they might eek out a pyrrhic victory. It is hard to say how much longer they can stretch what is left.
This is not a special military operation. It involves the citizens of both nations directly involved.
The War in Afghanistan. The War in Iraq. The War in Gaza.
The War in Ukraine. Started by Russia after their puppet government was ousted in Ukraine.
The CIA wishes they were even a tenth as competent as you think they are.
Go read any of the declassified reports of CIA activity, starting with the Church commission.
Or the actual events of Benghazi.
The truth is, the CIA is full of bumbling chucklefucks who have no clue if the actions they take will have the effect they want.
They can do a lot of damage, but like you, they also tend to believe the Hollywood myth making.
This belief doesn’t make them any more competent, but it does make them more reckless and dangerous.
Lol, no.
You should see a therapist
Smartest ml user
Whaaaat? you don’t believe they fight with shovels?