- cross-posted to:
- ukraine
- [email protected]
- cross-posted to:
- ukraine
- [email protected]
“If fiscal expenses remain at their January levels throughout the remainder of the year, the NWF reserves could vanish in just three months. And even if they don’t — as is more likely — 2025 is probably the last year Moscow will be able to fully cover its fiscal deficit by tapping into those savings.”
Not mentioned in the article, but mentioned elsewhere - trains. Russia relies heavily on trains to move things. One part of train maintenance is the replacement of bearings. Russia can’t manufacture bearings for its trains and it can’t import them either because of sanctions. Russia has fewer and fewer operational trains and train cars. One very important thing that the trains haul is grain. There are reports that Russia could face starvation by the end of the year if it doesn’t get its trains repaired because they will be unable to haul food to the cities. Russia doesn’t have enough trucks and roads to replace the trains.
I’ve heard a lot about Russia not being able to make good ball bearings, so I think you are right it will impact transportation especially by train.
Regarding food, Russia is also likely to have way below average harvest in 2025 for several crops. Because they can’t import quality seeds, and have to make do with Russian seeds that have lower yields.
Note that this import is not restricted by embargo, because it’s for basic food items which have exceptions. It’s simply Russia themselves that prevent imports, probably because of lack of currency for imports.
So for sure prices of basic food items will go up in 2025, also more than inflation itself would require. And this is very likely to cause huge problems for especially pensioners and other low income households.
I don’t think we will see widespread starvation, but shortages rising prices and possibly food stamps are very likely.