The Trump administration and MAGA circles are closely watching the conservative, oil-rich province, particularly as a separatist movement has launched a campaign to organize an independence referendum.
I’ve lived most of my life in Alberta, in both rural and urban centers.
It’s actually a pretty long story, politically, to understand how we went from Klien to Smith.
The short version is that the old conservatives stalled in direction after achieving the goal of eliminating all provincial debt.
They (the party) finally found a purpose, independently (and predating) Trump, of simply using Ottawa as a foil. For everything.
I genuinely believe Smith’s US podcasts likening PP to Trump were designed to HURT PP. A Conservative federal government would be a political disaster provincially. They have no plan. They have no playbook. They ONLY have the “stand up to liberal Ottawa” drum to bang, and they lose that if the liberals aren’t in power anymore.
It isn’t HARD to find Albertans that say they want to separate. But, they’re not anywhere NEAR common enough that a referendum could ever actually find a majority in favour. It’s not anywhere near as popular of an idea as Quebec separation in the 90s.
And OF the Albertans that want to separate, they’re envisioning a country of our own, not becoming a US state. And, as foolish as a notion that it is, I think a good number of supporters recognize the reality that they could end up getting annexed by the US.
Trump’s behaviour on the world stage overall hurts the proposition of Albertan separation. There is a reason pro-separation organizers are trying to distance themselves from Trump. It’s a liability to thier goals. If there was no other measure than that to evaluate what separatist Albertans about Trump statistically (always will be individuals otherwise), that should be enough to answer that.
Are conservative Albertans that far gone? Considering Albertan conservatives as a contiguous block is nonsense to start with.
The vast majority of Albertans would self identify as “conservative” (small “c”), and yet 1000 flipped votes in the last election would have put (ANOTHER) NDP government in place. A great number of Albertan small “c” conservatives don’t vote conservative provincially because they just refuse to acknowledge the overton window shift. Smith (or Kenny) isn’t offering anything but “blame Ottawa”. It’s BARELY enough to get a slim majority. It’s not meaningfully compelling on the grand scale.
Speaking of Overton window shifts, Carney and Harper from a policy perspective are pretty damned similar.
Will Alberta separate? No. Simply, no. Regardless of what interference Trump brings.
Thank you for the detailed response. I appreciate your contribution to the discussion.
I think our experiences of politics in our respective countries are pretty similar. I live in the only US state that borders Alberta. Our state politics are much less MAGA like than the national politics, there’s a certain amount of disdain for DC here no matter who is in charge there, but discourse has still been dominated by conservatives of late. They do have trouble getting all of the national party’s talking points to fully take root with many here though.
I don’t mean to pivot to discussing the US. I just brought it up as a way to say that I think I understand your description of the situation in Alberta. I hope you guys continue to have better luck keeping the crazy at bay than we have. I watched Carney’s speech in Davos and I thought he laid out a solid vision of a path forward for Canada. Do you think it was well received in Alberta?
The west is bound to begrudge the east because of lack of representation/voice. East coast politics rule both our countries even though we are both coast to coast. Population density factors in to it certainly but nearness to the body politic has a role there too.
It was well received, by AB standards. The provincial government didn’t bash it (and considering it’s thier ONLY tool, they understood it was well recieved and it was off-limits). A few old conservatives came out of the woodwork to say “put down your personal political views for a minute and watch the speech”, which was essentially an endorsement.
I’ve lived most of my life in Alberta, in both rural and urban centers.
It’s actually a pretty long story, politically, to understand how we went from Klien to Smith.
The short version is that the old conservatives stalled in direction after achieving the goal of eliminating all provincial debt.
They (the party) finally found a purpose, independently (and predating) Trump, of simply using Ottawa as a foil. For everything.
I genuinely believe Smith’s US podcasts likening PP to Trump were designed to HURT PP. A Conservative federal government would be a political disaster provincially. They have no plan. They have no playbook. They ONLY have the “stand up to liberal Ottawa” drum to bang, and they lose that if the liberals aren’t in power anymore.
It isn’t HARD to find Albertans that say they want to separate. But, they’re not anywhere NEAR common enough that a referendum could ever actually find a majority in favour. It’s not anywhere near as popular of an idea as Quebec separation in the 90s.
And OF the Albertans that want to separate, they’re envisioning a country of our own, not becoming a US state. And, as foolish as a notion that it is, I think a good number of supporters recognize the reality that they could end up getting annexed by the US.
Trump’s behaviour on the world stage overall hurts the proposition of Albertan separation. There is a reason pro-separation organizers are trying to distance themselves from Trump. It’s a liability to thier goals. If there was no other measure than that to evaluate what separatist Albertans about Trump statistically (always will be individuals otherwise), that should be enough to answer that.
Are conservative Albertans that far gone? Considering Albertan conservatives as a contiguous block is nonsense to start with.
The vast majority of Albertans would self identify as “conservative” (small “c”), and yet 1000 flipped votes in the last election would have put (ANOTHER) NDP government in place. A great number of Albertan small “c” conservatives don’t vote conservative provincially because they just refuse to acknowledge the overton window shift. Smith (or Kenny) isn’t offering anything but “blame Ottawa”. It’s BARELY enough to get a slim majority. It’s not meaningfully compelling on the grand scale.
Speaking of Overton window shifts, Carney and Harper from a policy perspective are pretty damned similar.
Will Alberta separate? No. Simply, no. Regardless of what interference Trump brings.
Thank you for the detailed response. I appreciate your contribution to the discussion.
I think our experiences of politics in our respective countries are pretty similar. I live in the only US state that borders Alberta. Our state politics are much less MAGA like than the national politics, there’s a certain amount of disdain for DC here no matter who is in charge there, but discourse has still been dominated by conservatives of late. They do have trouble getting all of the national party’s talking points to fully take root with many here though.
I don’t mean to pivot to discussing the US. I just brought it up as a way to say that I think I understand your description of the situation in Alberta. I hope you guys continue to have better luck keeping the crazy at bay than we have. I watched Carney’s speech in Davos and I thought he laid out a solid vision of a path forward for Canada. Do you think it was well received in Alberta?
The west is bound to begrudge the east because of lack of representation/voice. East coast politics rule both our countries even though we are both coast to coast. Population density factors in to it certainly but nearness to the body politic has a role there too.
It was well received, by AB standards. The provincial government didn’t bash it (and considering it’s thier ONLY tool, they understood it was well recieved and it was off-limits). A few old conservatives came out of the woodwork to say “put down your personal political views for a minute and watch the speech”, which was essentially an endorsement.