oil skyrocketing in price and the economy and stock market taking a huge hit could cause the investments required to prop up the bubble to run out of steam
Segregate the market into “AI” and “non-AI” segments for simplicity.
Looking at the thousand or so “investors” who’s money matters at this scale, there’s no point in selling “non-AI” stock to fund “AI” investments already, these markets are already low. Adding the Iran war to that isn’t changing anything.
More likely, they are borrowing against existing “AI” stock and reinvesting that (oversimplification, but speaking broadly). Additionally, one of the big sources of these loans is Saudi Arabia, which benefits from the higher oil prices.
The only other way in which oil prices impact “AI” is through energy costs, which impacts the immediate profitability of “AI”, which “investors” have shown they are unconcerned with.
Or, to simplify,
Nothing about the “AI” speculative bubble is likely to be impacted by the war in Iran.
Two things that have also failed to manifest, in large part thanks to the prolific state spending following COVID.
Keep in mind, the event that really knocked over the tower of cards in 2008 was Greenspan’s decision to raise interest rates (very sharply) in 2007. Trump’s very obviously not going to do that. If anything, he’s been working overtime to get interest rates lower, because he knows cheap money = high (raw) GDP growth and low unemployment.
What we’re seeing isn’t recessionary. It’s a glacial shift in the economic priorities of the US, from a post-Reagan titanic banking juggernaut to a post-COVID more-WW2-style global arms depot. The US economy increasingly makes cops and bombs and machines that assist cops and bombs. And there’s no recognized upper limit for demand on these goods and services. Not under current geopolitical conditions, anyway.
Fair enough. Hope you made some money on the plunge. I would not have guessed an 8% drop, given the weirdly stubborn endless equities enthusiasm, but here we are.
Yeah 8% over 1 month is pretty huge. Not suggesting this will actually happen, but if the current trend continues at the same rate, it will be a 62% loss over a year.
A short period of time before the Iran war started, I pulled all my money out of the market and am 100% in CDs now. I didn’t time the top perfectly, but that’s never really my goal anyway, and I’m definitely beating the market right now with modest returns.
Not suggesting this will actually happen, but if the current trend continues at the same rate
It never does. Markets move periodically - early slow change, mid-point rapid change, tail slow change - for the most part. Nevermind that a 62% sell-off raises the question of “Who is selling?” versus “Who is buying?” Dollars are still far too cheap for a plunge that steep.
A short period of time before the Iran war started, I pulled all my money out of the market and am 100% in CDs now.
CD rates are shit right now, thanks to low interest rates.
You’d be better off in utilities or REITs. US energy companies have done very well in the wake of the Hormuz straight closure. I dropped a bunch into United Healthcare recently, thanks to their bargain basement price. Doubt it’ll pay off soon. But I see a healthy upside long term.
CD rates are shit right now, thanks to low interest rates.
Actually, they are really good. The interests rates have come down a bit from their peak, but aren’t actually low at all compared to the last 10 years. There hasn’t been a better time than the last 3 years to be in CDs since basically the 90s.
I am mainly in CDs due to external factors that make locked in returns over regular periods more attractive than other options, though.
oil skyrocketing in price and the economy and stock market taking a huge hit could cause the investments required to prop up the bubble to run out of steam
The parts of the
economystock market that would be heavily impacted by oil prices are already in the gutter.Literally all of it. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/oilpricesinflation.asp
You’re not wrong. Does not refute my claim though.
Segregate the market into “AI” and “non-AI” segments for simplicity.
Looking at the thousand or so “investors” who’s money matters at this scale, there’s no point in selling “non-AI” stock to fund “AI” investments already, these markets are already low. Adding the Iran war to that isn’t changing anything. More likely, they are borrowing against existing “AI” stock and reinvesting that (oversimplification, but speaking broadly). Additionally, one of the big sources of these loans is Saudi Arabia, which benefits from the higher oil prices.
The only other way in which oil prices impact “AI” is through energy costs, which impacts the immediate profitability of “AI”, which “investors” have shown they are unconcerned with.
Or, to simplify,
Two things that have also failed to manifest, in large part thanks to the prolific state spending following COVID.
Keep in mind, the event that really knocked over the tower of cards in 2008 was Greenspan’s decision to raise interest rates (very sharply) in 2007. Trump’s very obviously not going to do that. If anything, he’s been working overtime to get interest rates lower, because he knows cheap money = high (raw) GDP growth and low unemployment.
What we’re seeing isn’t recessionary. It’s a glacial shift in the economic priorities of the US, from a post-Reagan titanic banking juggernaut to a post-COVID more-WW2-style global arms depot. The US economy increasingly makes cops and bombs and machines that assist cops and bombs. And there’s no recognized upper limit for demand on these goods and services. Not under current geopolitical conditions, anyway.
We’re still only 3 days into this war. And yet this is already manifesting right now in real life as we debate it on the internet. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-sink-while-oil-prices-jump-as-iran-attacks-jolt-markets-235000934.html
Yes, agreed, this is very obvious. Because Trump does not have control over the interest rates.
The second big Iran-Israel conflict in less than a year.
Ah yes. A total nosedive of 0.30%.
This is the Uno-Reverse “Why you complaining when the DOW is over 50,000!” line. Any token sell-off gets reported on like it’s Black Friday.
He’s lining up his pick to replace Powell as we speak.
Well, it’s been 4 weeks, so I’m back! Here’s the S&P 500 over the last month, with no end to the Iran war in sight.
Fair enough. Hope you made some money on the plunge. I would not have guessed an 8% drop, given the weirdly stubborn endless equities enthusiasm, but here we are.
Yeah 8% over 1 month is pretty huge. Not suggesting this will actually happen, but if the current trend continues at the same rate, it will be a 62% loss over a year.
A short period of time before the Iran war started, I pulled all my money out of the market and am 100% in CDs now. I didn’t time the top perfectly, but that’s never really my goal anyway, and I’m definitely beating the market right now with modest returns.
It never does. Markets move periodically - early slow change, mid-point rapid change, tail slow change - for the most part. Nevermind that a 62% sell-off raises the question of “Who is selling?” versus “Who is buying?” Dollars are still far too cheap for a plunge that steep.
CD rates are shit right now, thanks to low interest rates.
You’d be better off in utilities or REITs. US energy companies have done very well in the wake of the Hormuz straight closure. I dropped a bunch into United Healthcare recently, thanks to their bargain basement price. Doubt it’ll pay off soon. But I see a healthy upside long term.
Actually, they are really good. The interests rates have come down a bit from their peak, but aren’t actually low at all compared to the last 10 years. There hasn’t been a better time than the last 3 years to be in CDs since basically the 90s.
I am mainly in CDs due to external factors that make locked in returns over regular periods more attractive than other options, though.
I’ll come back to this in 4 weeks. See you then 😉
You gotta at least give yourself a full Friedman Unit.
I wouldn’t take any kind of advice from Friedman…
Why would a war with Iran cause oil prices to skyrocket?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Hormuz
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-aramco-shuts-ras-tanura-refinery-after-drone-strike-source-says-2026-03-02/
The prices are what they were in January, according to the article.
The article is from yesterday, the prices went from 65$ to 70$ compared to yesterday. Not huge, but an increase.
They already are.