Trump is far ahead in national polling, eclipsing Florida's governor and the rest of the field, who have so far been at a loss over how to narrow that gap.
This has been one delicious fucking disaster. He doesn’t stand a chance in a general. But he’s still managing to prevent the Rs from rebranding into something sane enough idiots can vote for.
No, he’s really not. He’s in how many court cases at the moment? His Russian funders are busy losing a land war they started. He’s already lost the general once. People had four years of him so he’s a known quantity.
No, that’s fucking stupid. He’s not more dangerous than ever. It’s idiotic to suggest so.
Should we we be cautious? Of course. But the best possible outcome for this election slcycle was a fracturing of the Republican part and that’s what has happened. They’re fucked because after 40 years of Republicanism, they don’t mean or stand for shit other than hate and oppression. Their entire policy back catalogue is bunk. They’ve got nothing and are on the wrong side of everything and everyone, even their voters, know it.
I would suggest the Russians have never had a greater interest in controlling a US president than right now. Given how disastrous a Trump win would be, this is not the time for positivism and certainties. Anything could happen.
He’s going to have to work to be elected during the court cases. He’s already incredibly unpopular as is, and he’ll have constant news dripping out about how big of a traitor he is and how he attempted a self coup. That’s not going to help his poll numbers with anyone who wasn’t already a MAGAt.
That doesn’t matter at all in today’s political climate. Tribalism has taken over and they don’t care if he’s a criminal, Republicans will all vote for him simply because he’s the nominee. The ONLY thing that matters is if the Dems can turn out enough of their people to beat him in the general.
That doesn’t matter at all in today’s political climate. Tribalism has taken over and they don’t care if he’s a criminal, Republicans will all vote for him simply because he’s the nominee.
Wow, that’s a really bad take considering that independents are what wins a candidate the election, since as you say, tribalists are going to vote for their tribe.
Independents aren’t going to gargle trump’s marbles in the face of overwhelming evidence of his incompetence, open fascism, and disdain for the electoral process, and there aren’t nearly enough brain dead republicans to carry him in the general alone.
TLDR: Political scientist did a study and wrote a book on independents. Most people who identify as independent actually lean towards one party and actually act MORE partisan than a party member. The “true” independents/undecideds completely withdraw from politics and just don’t vote at all.
That’s not true. He has 2 state indictments plus federal charges. If he were elected he could only pardon the federal charges. In fact he will probably be charged soon in a 3rd state so even more fucked.
I like your positivity, I just hope it happens like that as well. I still remember he had almost no chance to win in 2016 and somehow won, he’ll even Trump was surprised he won.
You mean when Trump was an unknown quantity, when he was going up against another unpopular candidate who was attacked constantly for decades and had the FBI release damning evidence but keep the evidence on Donny secret?
2024 is a vastly different race, because none of the above is true, and trump is going to have to try to get elected while he’s on trial for stealing documents and trying to start a coup. Plus, the worst they’ve got on Biden is Hunter, and that’s such a nothingburger that they’re now mad that they got what they wanted.
Trump was not an unknown quantity. He was elected back then precisely because he is exactly what the fascist republican party wanted then and continues to want now. And because people underestimated his chances.
Ignoring the danger he poses now because “people surely know better” is insane. January 6th and everything that lead to it happened after 4 years of that man’s bungling administration and you want to believe that everything is going to be fine?
Be optimistic if he loses. If he wins, the country is fucked. And until we know which way things go, anyone left leaning should treat this election as if we’re losing because letting our gaurd down has the potential of resulting in a Trump presidency with no brakes.
This has been one delicious fucking disaster. He doesn’t stand a chance in a general.
This mindset is what let him win in 2016. I don’t know about you, but I generally try not to make the same mistake twice. Yes, he has numerous indictments against him, some federal, some state. However, there is no constitutional or legal precedent preventing a felon from becoming president.
This is important to repeat:
There is no constitutional or legal precedent preventing a felon from becoming president.
No, it doesn’t matter if the indictments are federal or state. There is nothing disqualifing a felon from holding office. Furthermore, neither the states nor federal government can add a disqualifing condition without a constitutional amendment. I highly doubt a constitutional amendment will be written in those regards either, because I imagine there are many politicians at the state and local level who’d instantly lose their positions.
If convincted he’s ineligible under the 14th amendment, which is technically binding without further actions. Of course he will still be allowed to run and it will be up to SCOTUs Imo they are not as sympathetic toward trump as most people here would believe.
This is above my pay grade, but I think it is ultimately up to SCOTUS to decide, in the sense that the constitution can disqualify you from something even if you weren’t charged with the relevant laws. In other words, even if insurrection wasn’t a crime, and even if trump was not charged with any crime, I think SCOTUS still get to decide what is an insurrection and what isn’t. I am just speculating I am not a lawyer.
While that is true, I think you’re putting too much faith in the system. It requires a lot of people to put the US before their own safety (because almost guaranteed, any state that leaves trump off the ballot will have nutjobs trying to take potshots at government officials). Additionally, if he isn’t elected, there will likely be another riot, especially if he was left off the ballot; and if he is elected and then forcefully removed from office, there will likely be an even bigger, bloodier one. I’m not totally convinced that the government won’t take the easy path, and, if he’s elected, make a big huff and fuss about it while avoiding anything tangible because they’re too afraid of trumpites.
No its not. In 2016 the Democratic party thought they could win without progressives or leftists and they said fuckem’ along with the upper midwest. Democrats tried courting the center in 2016 and it failed.
… Yeah. Underestimating him and believing him to not be a threat is what lead him to win the election. The Democrats underestimated him and didn’t do their due diligence in reaching out to everyone and encouraging people to actually vote. That’s what I was trying to say.
This has been one delicious fucking disaster. He doesn’t stand a chance in a general. But he’s still managing to prevent the Rs from rebranding into something sane enough idiots can vote for.
Don’t stop your opponent from making mistakes.
I would not assume he doesn’t stand a chance. He’s every bit as dangerous as he’s ever been.
No, he’s really not. He’s in how many court cases at the moment? His Russian funders are busy losing a land war they started. He’s already lost the general once. People had four years of him so he’s a known quantity.
No, that’s fucking stupid. He’s not more dangerous than ever. It’s idiotic to suggest so.
Should we we be cautious? Of course. But the best possible outcome for this election slcycle was a fracturing of the Republican part and that’s what has happened. They’re fucked because after 40 years of Republicanism, they don’t mean or stand for shit other than hate and oppression. Their entire policy back catalogue is bunk. They’ve got nothing and are on the wrong side of everything and everyone, even their voters, know it.
This just good popcorn content at this point.
I would suggest the Russians have never had a greater interest in controlling a US president than right now. Given how disastrous a Trump win would be, this is not the time for positivism and certainties. Anything could happen.
The court cases mean nothing if he’s elected
He’s going to have to work to be elected during the court cases. He’s already incredibly unpopular as is, and he’ll have constant news dripping out about how big of a traitor he is and how he attempted a self coup. That’s not going to help his poll numbers with anyone who wasn’t already a MAGAt.
That doesn’t matter at all in today’s political climate. Tribalism has taken over and they don’t care if he’s a criminal, Republicans will all vote for him simply because he’s the nominee. The ONLY thing that matters is if the Dems can turn out enough of their people to beat him in the general.
Wow, that’s a really bad take considering that independents are what wins a candidate the election, since as you say, tribalists are going to vote for their tribe.
Independents aren’t going to gargle trump’s marbles in the face of overwhelming evidence of his incompetence, open fascism, and disdain for the electoral process, and there aren’t nearly enough brain dead republicans to carry him in the general alone.
What independents? That argument made sense 20 years ago, but that hasn’t been a thing since the Obama administration.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/20/undecided-voters-2020-swing-election-independents-399505
TLDR: Political scientist did a study and wrote a book on independents. Most people who identify as independent actually lean towards one party and actually act MORE partisan than a party member. The “true” independents/undecideds completely withdraw from politics and just don’t vote at all.
That’s not true. He has 2 state indictments plus federal charges. If he were elected he could only pardon the federal charges. In fact he will probably be charged soon in a 3rd state so even more fucked.
Two federal indictments, and one state (NY). Georgia will be the second state indictment.
I hope you’re right. More than that, I hope this literally fractures the Republican party. The US needs more political parties.
I like your positivity, I just hope it happens like that as well. I still remember he had almost no chance to win in 2016 and somehow won, he’ll even Trump was surprised he won.
Did you seriously forget 2016?
You mean when Trump was an unknown quantity, when he was going up against another unpopular candidate who was attacked constantly for decades and had the FBI release damning evidence but keep the evidence on Donny secret?
2024 is a vastly different race, because none of the above is true, and trump is going to have to try to get elected while he’s on trial for stealing documents and trying to start a coup. Plus, the worst they’ve got on Biden is Hunter, and that’s such a nothingburger that they’re now mad that they got what they wanted.
Trump was not an unknown quantity. He was elected back then precisely because he is exactly what the fascist republican party wanted then and continues to want now. And because people underestimated his chances.
Ignoring the danger he poses now because “people surely know better” is insane. January 6th and everything that lead to it happened after 4 years of that man’s bungling administration and you want to believe that everything is going to be fine?
Be optimistic if he loses. If he wins, the country is fucked. And until we know which way things go, anyone left leaning should treat this election as if we’re losing because letting our gaurd down has the potential of resulting in a Trump presidency with no brakes.
This mindset is what let him win in 2016. I don’t know about you, but I generally try not to make the same mistake twice. Yes, he has numerous indictments against him, some federal, some state. However, there is no constitutional or legal precedent preventing a felon from becoming president.
This is important to repeat:
There is no constitutional or legal precedent preventing a felon from becoming president.
No, it doesn’t matter if the indictments are federal or state. There is nothing disqualifing a felon from holding office. Furthermore, neither the states nor federal government can add a disqualifing condition without a constitutional amendment. I highly doubt a constitutional amendment will be written in those regards either, because I imagine there are many politicians at the state and local level who’d instantly lose their positions.
If convincted he’s ineligible under the 14th amendment, which is technically binding without further actions. Of course he will still be allowed to run and it will be up to SCOTUs Imo they are not as sympathetic toward trump as most people here would believe.
He hasn’t been charged with insurrection, so even if he’s convicted the 14th amendment won’t apply.
This is above my pay grade, but I think it is ultimately up to SCOTUS to decide, in the sense that the constitution can disqualify you from something even if you weren’t charged with the relevant laws. In other words, even if insurrection wasn’t a crime, and even if trump was not charged with any crime, I think SCOTUS still get to decide what is an insurrection and what isn’t. I am just speculating I am not a lawyer.
While that is true, I think you’re putting too much faith in the system. It requires a lot of people to put the US before their own safety (because almost guaranteed, any state that leaves trump off the ballot will have nutjobs trying to take potshots at government officials). Additionally, if he isn’t elected, there will likely be another riot, especially if he was left off the ballot; and if he is elected and then forcefully removed from office, there will likely be an even bigger, bloodier one. I’m not totally convinced that the government won’t take the easy path, and, if he’s elected, make a big huff and fuss about it while avoiding anything tangible because they’re too afraid of trumpites.
Yeah I agree with you. This is why I mentioned that he would still be allowed to run, ultimately someone would need to sue and get this to SCOTUS.
No its not. In 2016 the Democratic party thought they could win without progressives or leftists and they said fuckem’ along with the upper midwest. Democrats tried courting the center in 2016 and it failed.
… Yeah. Underestimating him and believing him to not be a threat is what lead him to win the election. The Democrats underestimated him and didn’t do their due diligence in reaching out to everyone and encouraging people to actually vote. That’s what I was trying to say.
Ain’t no Democrat underestimating him in 2024. I’d crawl through broken glass to vote against that fucker.
People thought he didn’t stand a chance in 2016, yet here we are…
I seriously doubt there’s any danger of that happening, but would that really be so horrible? if the republicans became more… sane?