We should compare against the 2020 election, not 2016.

Have voters who supported Biden in 2020 switched to supporting Trump in 2024? I think not. If anything, I think recent news may have convinced a few Trump supporters to switch sides (potentially to a third party, which is still a win for Biden).

Still, it’s important that people actually get out and vote, because the margins are slim in a few important states. PA and GA come to mind.