Can provide links when back at desk, but off top of head
The mafia fuel station (orcistan) is now importing refined fuel instead of exporting it, and crude exports are down to about 20% of 2 yrs ago, with shadow tankers now getting captured. TL;DR income impacted
Head of reserve bank (who is extremely competent) has suddenly disappeared, they’re now talking about swiping business and personal bank balances to finance the war. Tl;dr economic mgt issues
air defnces being removed from front line to protect moscow + valdai (dachas of putin & oligarchs)
-UA has massively restricted supply flows into crimea and western ocvupied section, will become increasingly hard to hold
russian army recruitment has dropped30% over last couple of months. Meatwaves only work if you can keep replenishing the meat
civilians evacuating crimea
So none of that individually or even in whole means orcistan is going to collapse in the next week, but there is a clear direction of travel towards it as the UA “long distance sanctions” keep biting they will have to withdraw or collapse.
It’s getting closer but it’s not a done deal. Predictions of late 2026 seem realistic to slightly optimistic.
The wild card is China & what they do.
I certainly hope it happens in the next 6-12 months.
Yes, Russia (Orcistan) is often referred to as a gas station run by the mafia
UA is the international abbreviation for Ukraine
Yes, I am saying that Russia could experience a major societal breakdown within the next year, there are a lot of things pushing them in that direction, nothing of course is certain in life but the possibility is a lot closer than it has been quite a while for all the reasons listed above (plus more).
I thought Russia was just russi in Russian, why’s it called orcistan?
Didn’t know it had a name or a movement to it but the concept of MRSA is something I’ve believed in.
Though I notice the page calling Russia’s actions against Ukraine genocidal. Not sure if it is a genocide? It meets the first 3/5 criteria of the UN definition (afaik Russia hasn’t tried stopping births in UA or transferring members?), but then again so does every war, and war isn’t typically understood as genocide (?)
Also the fall of Russia may give the American Empire more power which isn’t desirable either, not sure.
Orcistan is a pejorative nickname: “istan” being a common central asian suffix meaning “land of” (ie Tajikstan land of the Tajiks, Afghanistan etc). Orcs being a pejorative nickname for Russians in response to their constant use of Kohol (aka Khokhol) for Ukrainians and a reference to their behaviours
Is Russia attempting genocide ? Absolutely. Have they succeeded - arguable. To your specific point though, they most certainly have transferred Ukrainians out of their invaded lands including kidnapping of 20,000+ 200,000+ children (sorry there was a zero missing there), the Russians themselves claim they have taken 700K
And this certainly comes under genocidal actions because they didn’t just kidnap them, there are reliable reports they are forcing them to become russian (language banned, contact with family banned etc) this is attempts to wipe out a culture.
They’ve also forced all Ukrainians in the occupied territories (at gun point) to take russian passports and many thousands have been relocated into Russia (Crimean citizens in particular).
The wholesale massacre of civilians with no legal cause is also under the heading of genocide (see Bucha), these aren’t people who got caught in the crossfire, these are people who were dragged out of their homes when the Orcs had over run the town and shot (after being raped).
Etc etc, google Russian war crimes in Ukraine, they’re literally treating it as the Geneva checklist, there’s very few items left they haven’t proveably done.
The fall of Russia would have given the US more power in a different timeline where they stayed sane, the Fanta Felon has irrevocably destroyed the US’s long term power, it’s a matter of a slow descent like Rome. They certainly will be a force for a long time to come (same as Russia was post USSR) but the deliberate shift of the US into a techno-fuedal fascist society is going to reduce their ability to take advantage.
It’s China who are making out like bandits here. They’re making mint selling arms and components to Russia, they’re getting Russian crude cheap because they have them over a barrel, and they’ll soon be able to dictate terms to Russia for bailing them out when their economy collapses
It’s getting close? Wdym
Can provide links when back at desk, but off top of head
The mafia fuel station (orcistan) is now importing refined fuel instead of exporting it, and crude exports are down to about 20% of 2 yrs ago, with shadow tankers now getting captured. TL;DR income impacted
Head of reserve bank (who is extremely competent) has suddenly disappeared, they’re now talking about swiping business and personal bank balances to finance the war. Tl;dr economic mgt issues
air defnces being removed from front line to protect moscow + valdai (dachas of putin & oligarchs)
-UA has massively restricted supply flows into crimea and western ocvupied section, will become increasingly hard to hold
russian army recruitment has dropped30% over last couple of months. Meatwaves only work if you can keep replenishing the meat
civilians evacuating crimea
So none of that individually or even in whole means orcistan is going to collapse in the next week, but there is a clear direction of travel towards it as the UA “long distance sanctions” keep biting they will have to withdraw or collapse.
It’s getting closer but it’s not a done deal. Predictions of late 2026 seem realistic to slightly optimistic.
The wild card is China & what they do.
I certainly hope it happens in the next 6-12 months.
Wdym “mafia” fuel station? Isn’t that not Russia as a whole (unless that’s just being used to refer to them)?
What’s UA?
Do you mean to say Russia could plausibly crash in a year?
Yes, Russia (Orcistan) is often referred to as a gas station run by the mafia
UA is the international abbreviation for Ukraine
Yes, I am saying that Russia could experience a major societal breakdown within the next year, there are a lot of things pushing them in that direction, nothing of course is certain in life but the possibility is a lot closer than it has been quite a while for all the reasons listed above (plus more).
I am a believer in MRSA https://makerussiasmallagain.net/
I thought Russia was just russi in Russian, why’s it called orcistan?
Didn’t know it had a name or a movement to it but the concept of MRSA is something I’ve believed in.
Though I notice the page calling Russia’s actions against Ukraine genocidal. Not sure if it is a genocide? It meets the first 3/5 criteria of the UN definition (afaik Russia hasn’t tried stopping births in UA or transferring members?), but then again so does every war, and war isn’t typically understood as genocide (?)
Also the fall of Russia may give the American Empire more power which isn’t desirable either, not sure.
Orcistan is a pejorative nickname: “istan” being a common central asian suffix meaning “land of” (ie Tajikstan land of the Tajiks, Afghanistan etc). Orcs being a pejorative nickname for Russians in response to their constant use of Kohol (aka Khokhol) for Ukrainians and a reference to their behaviours
Is Russia attempting genocide ? Absolutely. Have they succeeded - arguable. To your specific point though, they most certainly have transferred Ukrainians out of their invaded lands including kidnapping of
20,000+200,000+ children (sorry there was a zero missing there), the Russians themselves claim they have taken 700Khttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_abductions_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_war
And this certainly comes under genocidal actions because they didn’t just kidnap them, there are reliable reports they are forcing them to become russian (language banned, contact with family banned etc) this is attempts to wipe out a culture.
They’ve also forced all Ukrainians in the occupied territories (at gun point) to take russian passports and many thousands have been relocated into Russia (Crimean citizens in particular).
The wholesale massacre of civilians with no legal cause is also under the heading of genocide (see Bucha), these aren’t people who got caught in the crossfire, these are people who were dragged out of their homes when the Orcs had over run the town and shot (after being raped).
Etc etc, google Russian war crimes in Ukraine, they’re literally treating it as the Geneva checklist, there’s very few items left they haven’t proveably done.
The fall of Russia would have given the US more power in a different timeline where they stayed sane, the Fanta Felon has irrevocably destroyed the US’s long term power, it’s a matter of a slow descent like Rome. They certainly will be a force for a long time to come (same as Russia was post USSR) but the deliberate shift of the US into a techno-fuedal fascist society is going to reduce their ability to take advantage.
It’s China who are making out like bandits here. They’re making mint selling arms and components to Russia, they’re getting Russian crude cheap because they have them over a barrel, and they’ll soon be able to dictate terms to Russia for bailing them out when their economy collapses
What distinguishes a war from genocide?
Isn’t that Europe and possibly the rest of the world too?
I have another question regarding Russia-Ukraine but I’ll keep the focus on these two for now. Rest is understood.