cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/55394990

• China’s annual emissions have risen by 8.8 billion metric tons since 2000, accounting for roughly 62% of the entire global increase.
• China’s national emissions are now about 2.5 times higher than the U.S., even though its per capita emissions remain lower.
• Despite record solar and wind installations, China still burns more than half the world’s coal, and coal-fired power is rising again.

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China’s per capita emissions remain below those of the United States. The U.S. and Europe have contributed more cumulative carbon dioxide to the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution. China has installed more wind and solar capacity than any other country.

All of those statements are true.

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But none of those facts erase the central point: China’s total carbon emissions have risen dramatically, and that rise has been the largest single contributor to the increase in global emissions this century.

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China’s annual emissions are now roughly two and a half times those of the United States. That is not a minor difference. It makes China the world’s largest annual emitter by a wide margin.

The trend is even more important. According to the Statistical Review of World Energy, global annual carbon dioxide emissions have risen by about 14 billion metric tons this century. China’s annual emissions have risen by about 8.8 billion metric tons over that same period. That means China accounts for roughly 62% of the global increase.

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The renewable energy point also needs nuance.

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China is not yet replacing fossil fuels fast enough to prevent emissions growth […] It is building renewables, but it is also responsible for over 50% of the world’s coal consumption. It is electrifying transportation, but it is also expanding industrial output. It is adding clean energy, but total energy demand has grown so quickly that renewables have not been able to fully offset fossil fuel growth.

That is the key point. The emissions outcome depends not only on how much renewable energy a country installs, but also on how fast total energy demand grows.

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Any serious climate discussion has to hold those facts at the same time.

If the question is cumulative responsibility, the U.S. and Europe carry a large burden. If the question is per capita emissions, the U.S. still looks bad. If the question is renewable deployment, China looks impressive.

But if the question is why annual global carbon dioxide emissions have risen so rapidly this century, China is the biggest part of the answer.

That is not a myth. It is what the data show.