So I’ve heard this said before, but I don’t really get it.
Massie is a current Kentucky House representative, he lost his primary so his term will end in January.
McConnell’s seat is up for election in November, so his term also ends in January.
If a special election is held, it’s just to fill out his term until the end of January.
So in a scenario where a special election is held and Massie wins, he has to resign his House seat to take the Senate seat, but the term still ends in January.
Yes, it changes the balance of the senate on the interim by adding a spoiler vote to the republican side. Which could make it harder for them to pass anti-voter laws between now and November
Beshear would have 30 days to call an election, and prospective candidates would then have 49 days to consider running and file.
Let’s assume Beshear calls for a special election on August 2nd, a day before the deadline. Plus 49 days brings you to September 20th, but that’s not when the election is held, that’s just when everyone must declare by.
Is there anything that clarifies that timeline?
And of course secondary to that, would the people of Kentucky vote for the independent Massie who can at best serve for a few months, or would you “double” vote for the person running in the standard election so they can start working immediately.
To be very clear, McConnell is a piece of shit, he’s probably dead or at the very least incapable of performing his duties and should be replaced. But I just don’t see a scenario where Massie actually is able to do anything.
The race for McConnell’s seat is already underway and the Republican nominee already picked. Additionally all other deadlines to run as an Independent have passed.
Ok rereading this I think you missed the whole shenanigan the last few weeks. If McConnell is declared dead before Aug 3, then there is a special election/appointment (because that’s debated). If McConnell is declared dead on or after Aug 3, then there is a rule that kicks in that because it’s only 3 months until the midterms, then there is no special election/appointment and McConnell’s seat election gets rolled up together with the midterms.
The GOP is concerned that if McConnell is declared dead before Aug 3, then there will be an appointment/special election to replace McConnell before the midterms. That will make Massie/whoever wins/is appointed the “incumbent”. Yes that will be short lived because the midterm election will happen anyway. But they still don’t want it. Their thought process is that if Massie wins/is appointed, then it will give him an “incumbent” advantage in the midterms (in scare quotes if you want). So they are keeping McConnell on life support until Aug 3 so that it gets punted to the mdterms.
Their thought process is that if Massie wins/is appointed, then it will give him an “incumbent” advantage in the midterms
But I don’t believe Massie can run in the midterms.
I admit I am wrong that he can’t be the incumbent, because technically being the incumbent just implies holding the office, not running for the office they currently hold, but in a world where a special election happens (or an appointment), and Massie takes McConnell’s Senate seat, he can not run in the midterm election.
Per Ballotpedia the deadline to file as a unaffiliated (independent) was in June.
Any special election would only cover the remainder of McConnell’s term and not the term after, which is a whole separate election that is happening in November.
My guess, after reading more about it, would be that a special election could include the two current midterm candidates AND Massie (as an independent), and that election could result in a Democrat winning. Then because the Democrats “just won” it would lower Republican voter turnout in the midterms. (Although I suspect in this scenario the midterm and special election would both take place in November, so it wouldn’t be two separate elections, but Massie would get more air time to ensure the Republican doesn’t win.)
So I’ve heard this said before, but I don’t really get it.
Massie is a current Kentucky House representative, he lost his primary so his term will end in January.
McConnell’s seat is up for election in November, so his term also ends in January.
If a special election is held, it’s just to fill out his term until the end of January.
So in a scenario where a special election is held and Massie wins, he has to resign his House seat to take the Senate seat, but the term still ends in January.
Does that really change anything?
Yes, it changes the balance of the senate on the interim by adding a spoiler vote to the republican side. Which could make it harder for them to pass anti-voter laws between now and November
I guess it’s not nothing, but it also removes a vote from the US House.
I’m also not sure that in this hypothetical scenario Massie would be seated before the November election.
Per this article,
Let’s assume Beshear calls for a special election on August 2nd, a day before the deadline. Plus 49 days brings you to September 20th, but that’s not when the election is held, that’s just when everyone must declare by.
Is there anything that clarifies that timeline?
And of course secondary to that, would the people of Kentucky vote for the independent Massie who can at best serve for a few months, or would you “double” vote for the person running in the standard election so they can start working immediately.
To be very clear, McConnell is a piece of shit, he’s probably dead or at the very least incapable of performing his duties and should be replaced. But I just don’t see a scenario where Massie actually is able to do anything.
Thought is it may give him incumbent advantage.
He can’t be the incumbent.
The race for McConnell’s seat is already underway and the Republican nominee already picked. Additionally all other deadlines to run as an Independent have passed.
Ok rereading this I think you missed the whole shenanigan the last few weeks. If McConnell is declared dead before Aug 3, then there is a special election/appointment (because that’s debated). If McConnell is declared dead on or after Aug 3, then there is a rule that kicks in that because it’s only 3 months until the midterms, then there is no special election/appointment and McConnell’s seat election gets rolled up together with the midterms.
The GOP is concerned that if McConnell is declared dead before Aug 3, then there will be an appointment/special election to replace McConnell before the midterms. That will make Massie/whoever wins/is appointed the “incumbent”. Yes that will be short lived because the midterm election will happen anyway. But they still don’t want it. Their thought process is that if Massie wins/is appointed, then it will give him an “incumbent” advantage in the midterms (in scare quotes if you want). So they are keeping McConnell on life support until Aug 3 so that it gets punted to the mdterms.
So I don’t think I’ve missed it.
As you said,
But I don’t believe Massie can run in the midterms.
I admit I am wrong that he can’t be the incumbent, because technically being the incumbent just implies holding the office, not running for the office they currently hold, but in a world where a special election happens (or an appointment), and Massie takes McConnell’s Senate seat, he can not run in the midterm election.
Per Ballotpedia the deadline to file as a unaffiliated (independent) was in June.
Any special election would only cover the remainder of McConnell’s term and not the term after, which is a whole separate election that is happening in November.
My guess, after reading more about it, would be that a special election could include the two current midterm candidates AND Massie (as an independent), and that election could result in a Democrat winning. Then because the Democrats “just won” it would lower Republican voter turnout in the midterms. (Although I suspect in this scenario the midterm and special election would both take place in November, so it wouldn’t be two separate elections, but Massie would get more air time to ensure the Republican doesn’t win.)