For three years Europe has repeated the same phrase about China, de-risking, not decoupling, and for three years it has struggled to show what the phrase means in practice. In mid-2026 that is starting to change.

At the European Council on 19 June, heads of state handed the Commission a clear political mandate to strengthen the bloc’s defences against Chinese industrial overcapacity and other forms of what Brussels calls unfair competition. The debate ran for more than two hours, which in European summitry signals a genuine argument rather than a rubber stamp.

The numbers behind the frustration are stark. The EU’s trade deficit with China has swollen to roughly 360 billion euros a year, close to a billion euros every day. Behind that figure sits a pattern European manufacturers know well: heavily subsidised Chinese capacity in electric vehicles, solar panels, batteries and now chemicals, produced far in excess of Chinese demand and pushed onto world markets at prices domestic rivals cannot match.

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Yet the [European] Commission is careful to keep the door open. De-risking was always meant to reduce exposure, not to sever a relationship worth hundreds of billions in two-way trade.

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Beijing, for its part, reads every tariff as provocation and has warned of retaliation against European farm goods, spirits and luxury exports.

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What has shifted in 2026 is not the slogan but the resolve behind it. Europe has stopped debating whether Chinese overcapacity is a problem and started arguing about how forcefully to answer it. For a bloc that prizes consensus and caution, that is a meaningful change of gear.

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