US intelligence believes Vladimir Putin could be planning a limited incursion as early as in the coming weeks, the US Wall Street Journal reported.

According to a Wall Street Journal report citing US intelligence, Russia could be preparing a limited incursion against a NATO member state within weeks. The report comes as the war in Ukraine remains largely deadlocked and the impact of the conflict is increasingly felt inside Russia.

Analysts cited in the report suggest Vladimir Putin may seek to open a new front rather than risk being remembered as the leader who lost Ukraine, raising fresh questions about NATO’s readiness and resolve.

  • WoodScientistEnglish
    72·
    19 hours ago

    It makes a lot of sense. You’re ignoring what a realistic action and response would look like.

    The goal wouldn’t be to conquer large swathes of NATO territory. The goal would be to test the integrity of the NATO alliance, and to see if the Russian sympathizer sitting in the White House will renege on the US’s obligations.

    Imagine Putin sends a few hundred troops over the border and seizes a small amount of land. NATO is not going to use that as an excuse to launch a total war against Russia. Sure, if the full might of the Russian army comes storming into Poland, NATO would let loose everything we have. But a limited incursion like in Georgia? If NATO is living up to its promises, sufficient force would be deployed to drive them out. There would be no need to launch a total war.

    This would be a way to test the NATO alliance at relatively low cost and risk. We don’t actually know how Trump would respond to this. He could very well say, “not our problem” and refuse to render aid. If he did command the US military to defend NATO territory, then the cost to Russia would be small. A few hundred casualties in a war that’s caused hundreds of thousands. A rounding error. A small price to pay.

    But imagine what Putin gains if Trump doesn’t offer assistance against even a small incursion. NATO’s guarantees will have proven fruitless. Even if someone more friendly to NATO gets elected after Trump, the promise will still be broken. Every NATO member from then on knows that the NATO guarantees cannot be relied upon. A guarantee that is subject to the whims of which American political party is in power is not a guarantee that nations can rely on for their national defense.

    • phutatorius@lemmy.zipEnglish
      1·
      5 hours ago

      and to see if the Russian sympathizer sitting in the White House will renege on the US’s obligations

      That bus has already left the station, and the other NATO countries know it. The only open question is how weak Putin will have to be before Trump flip-flops so that he can still be on what he perceives to be the winning side.

    • NotMyOldRedditNameEnglish
      3·
      18 hours ago

      If he does send a few hundred to steal some land, and gets pushed out, its not simply a matter of small price to pay, it could potentially change the entire landscape of the Ukraine war by changing how other countries support them. Its a pretty big gamble that they’ll do nothing.

      • WoodScientistEnglish
        11·
        18 hours ago

        The opposite could also happen. Countries facing direct threats to their own territory are less able to provide military aid.

        • NotMyOldRedditNameEnglish
          1·
          18 hours ago

          I think that would be less likely. They’ll see that the threat can be neutered via Ukraine and turn to them rather than simply wait it out which would result in a higher likelyhood of another attempt.