A large number of Russian "refineries have been blown up and are, at least temporarily, out of commission," Trump said, urging an end to the fighting.

What Trump responds to is very telling. He has less curiosity about the world than a geriatric house cat but then suddenly comes out with strong, focused opinions that he acts like the thing he’s brought up is revalatory and was previously unknowable. Healthcare was difficult - who knew? Can you inject sunlight and bleach into the body to kill covid? Why not? Why can’t we just nuke a hurricance? Suddenly, Ukraine - who had no cards this time last year - is impacting the global diesel market. This is one of those “no shit, sherlock” perk ups.

Here’s the well-traveled MO: He only chases things he’s personally motivated in, and is given brief, simple instructions on what to care about today from his handlers. And then he just wings it lazily trying to ham-fistedly extort somebody somewhere to do the work for him. Or to be the scapegoat to take blame for whatever he’s mad at today. Why did he bring this up today? Because someone told him to. Why and who is the important thing to know. And if whoever asked him to say this could do ANYTHING to stop it, they wouldn’t be asking him to impotently plead for relief.

Yes, Donald. Ukraine has attacked Russia’s oil & gas capacity. They said they were going to, and they have been for a year now. And it appears to affect you personally, enough to make a statement about it. Maybe that reveals the simple money train from Russian gas to your pocket. You tried to strong arm Ukraine, you cut support, you tried to create global instability by wrecking economies and threatening to invade your allies - but it hasn’t helped to restore the money train from Russia to your syndicate. This isn’t 4D chess. It isn’t even checkers. He tried last week to assign all blame to high diesel prices on zelensky, and surely none to his moronic boogaloo in Iran. What good is that? Only his audience of smooth brain racist goblins is even pretending to listen to him anymore, and what would you like them to do about Ukraine attacking Russian diesel production?

And you should have known this all, dummy. This was very knowable for anyone paying close attention. What feels a bit odd is that this lacks his usual sptittle-flinging bluster and threats against Zelensky. This relative restraint very much smells like desperation. The meekness is what’s notable.

Debating his conduct is pointless. He always tries to use leverage he doesn’t actually have to push people around. But that’s probably not the story here. The story is that he, and Putin, are very, very, very desperately weak right now. Trump wants the money train to resume. He has nothing left to try and blackmail Ukraine into a bad peace. Putin is trying to find a way to stay alive during a failing war that he caused that hasn’t given him anywhere near the kind of return that he can call any kind of worthwhile victory.

The point? Ukraine is doing EXACTLY what they should. As expected, they are bringing their Pelican domestic ballsitic missile program online, and Russia probably has no effective defense against it.

They’re squealing like stuck pigs. Russia ONLY responds to pain. This is how Ukraine gets them to stop.

  • Random_Character_A
    2·
    5 days ago

    Odd, I thought it was all in Trumps head that Ukraine stops the refinery strikes. Never saw any acknowledgment from Ukraine.

    • Ulara@sopuli.xyz
      4·
      5 days ago

      Indeed, Ukraine didn’t stop the strikes, emphasizing that any ceasefire must be mutual.

      • TwinkleToes@lemmy.caOPEnglish
        1·
        5 days ago

        And knowing that it wouldn’t be. Ukraine probably thinks it will be in a better position 3-6 months from now and Russia will be in a worse one. A ceasefire is probably by far the most likely end of this phase of the war.

        Then, a post-Putin process starts. All of the deferred pain of this stupid war will start to destroy Russia, he will eventually go tits up one way or another, there will - as is Russian tradition - be a power struggle of ethno-corporate warlord factions. They will fight among themselves, then blame the last guy for everything, just like they did with Nicholas II, Stalin, Kruschev, Brezhnev, Gorbachev & Yeltsin. Russia always loses wars, blames the leader, and is weaker coming out the other side.

        All the internal convulsions that Russia is going to descend in to creates opportunities for Ukraine to rebuild itself without having to commit resources it doesn’t have to eject the Russians today. This is now a long game, and Russia has already lost.

        • Ulara@sopuli.xyz
          1·
          4 days ago

          A ceasefire sounds very rational and logical to sane observers. Yet it is impossible.

          Moscovia is cursed by its usual conundrum: huge resources are invested into Czar’s “face”, and they can’t be pulled out in any way except the demotion of the Czar.

          His “face” is the consensus of the Kremlin towers. It must be infallible until it is overturned, as you rightly describe. So they can’t back off on their insane annexation decisions, which they have already embedded in their “constitution”, until their whole empire collapses, with internal convulsions you mention.

          They similarly lost wars many times previously, when Moscovia faced a consolidated international coalition. And the Czar was demoted every time.

          On the other hand, the ceasefire was tried many times before, during Minsk agreements. It proved to be impossible, since Moscovians lack the discipline to maintain it, and can’t agree to the presence of foreign troops to enforce it.

          So indeed this is a long game.

          • TwinkleToes@lemmy.caOPEnglish
            1·
            4 days ago

            Totally agree with you - this war probably lasts as long as he does. In short - they are not ALLOWED to simply lose a war of aggression. And especially to a perceived inferior race like the little brother ukrainians. But - would they be allowed to lose to NATO, in a short, intense engamgent? Maybe - way above my paygrade.

            Is there an offramp other than his death/ouster? What would it look like? If you accept that they cannot accept losing to Ukraine, but they COULD lose to NATO…consider this scenario. They launch a quick, chaotic attack on Estonia - furthest away from Poland, smallest Baltic contry. Perceived to be not geopolitically important enough to ACTUALLY fight for per Article 5. Their star asset Krasnov does his last, final job and keeps the U.S. uninvolved, therefore in theory mooting Article 5.

            The goal isn’t to hold territory. They don’t even care if they get slaughtered. They probably lose some of the Baltic Fleet, and some more of the shadow fleet tankers. What Finland and Poland do here is vital - whether they decide to respond unilaterally indepedent of Article 5 commitments. The eastern nato members might decide that direct conflict with russia is inevitable, as an attack on the Baltics is proof that Pootz’s malign ambition is not limited to Ukraine. If you’re going to have a fight - better to do it in your neighbors yard than in your own. The rest of European NATO will probably do what they have throughout this war - incremental support starting with more air defence inventory and maybe some planes to assist with drone interception. That’s limp, but perhaps realistic. And more importantly - it’s the roots of a no-fly zone that would mitigate Russia’s most effective tactic against Ukraine: massed drone attacks.

            So in short - a brief, chaotic attack on Estonia, and then assess next steps on NATO’s response. But if they DID get punched back hard in the face and get bogged down quickly, they use that to say “We stood up to the full might of NATO!!” , then scurry back to Mordor and come up with their next plan of corrosive fuckery.

            Is it a great plan? No. It invites many dangers. But back to your point - they can’t stop under the current conditions. In case of a ceasefire as of this sentence, the current land they sit on isn’t enough of a prize compared to what they’ve lost. But if they told themselves “we destroyed NATO by showing Article 5 is just words on a page”. Add that symbolic “win”, in addition to still holding Crimea and Donbas plus fragments of Zaporhizia and Kherson…that MIGHT be enough to keep Putin alive for a while to come up with a better plan.

            • Ulara@sopuli.xyz
              1·
              4 days ago

              Well, they already emphasize on their TV that they are standing against the NATO.

              Let me tell you the scenario we must be prepared for:

              During contested 2028-2029 US election period, making use of the US internal polarization and strife, and the rise of right parties in Europe, China launches an attack on Taiwan, North Korea on South Korea, Iran and Houthis with Hamas on Arab States and Israel, and Moscovia launches an attack on Baltic States - all perfectly coordinated and simultaneous.

              If you study the history of WWII, you discover how alliances slowly crystallized and radicalised. First there were proxy wars, like those in Spain or Manchuria, until finally the superpowers, first rather unwillingly, went into full action.

              I’m afraid that is how history works, and the coordinated clash of superpowers themselves, namely of the US and China with their alliances, appears extremely likely, even though people try to avoid it.

              The brutal natural selection happens on this grand scale as well, whether we like it or not.

              • TwinkleToes@lemmy.caOPEnglish
                1·
                2 days ago

                I think you’re exactly right, mate. The 20th centry “eastern world” never went away. The USSR-China axis STILL considers itself entitled to taking more than they currently have, if for no other reason than the glory of Dear Leader, and for proof that their societies are superior to the decadent west. These last holdout ghouls leading Cold War superpower alumni don’t think like we do, and they want to preserve their privileged way of life.

                The kink in the hose for your timeline is I don’t think Russia can conitnue to bleed at this rate until a coordinated 2028-29 period and still retain significant offensive potential suitable for conquering enough land to make the entire thing worthwhile.

                American, Germany and French presidencies are very important to watch in the next couple of years. Trump is in his final act, but whatever comes after Macron and Merz is unlikely to have the same steadfast support for Ukraine.