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What Trump responds to is very telling. He has less curiosity about the world than a geriatric house cat but then suddenly comes out with strong, focused opinions that he acts like the thing he’s brought up is revalatory and was previously unknowable. Healthcare was difficult - who knew? Can you inject sunlight and bleach into the body to kill covid? Why not? Why can’t we just nuke a hurricance? Suddenly, Ukraine - who had no cards this time last year - is impacting the global diesel market. This is one of those “no shit, sherlock” perk ups.
Here’s the well-traveled MO: He only chases things he’s personally motivated in, and is given brief, simple instructions on what to care about today from his handlers. And then he just wings it lazily trying to ham-fistedly extort somebody somewhere to do the work for him. Or to be the scapegoat to take blame for whatever he’s mad at today. Why did he bring this up today? Because someone told him to. Why and who is the important thing to know. And if whoever asked him to say this could do ANYTHING to stop it, they wouldn’t be asking him to impotently plead for relief.
Yes, Donald. Ukraine has attacked Russia’s oil & gas capacity. They said they were going to, and they have been for a year now. And it appears to affect you personally, enough to make a statement about it. Maybe that reveals the simple money train from Russian gas to your pocket. You tried to strong arm Ukraine, you cut support, you tried to create global instability by wrecking economies and threatening to invade your allies - but it hasn’t helped to restore the money train from Russia to your syndicate. This isn’t 4D chess. It isn’t even checkers. He tried last week to assign all blame to high diesel prices on zelensky, and surely none to his moronic boogaloo in Iran. What good is that? Only his audience of smooth brain racist goblins is even pretending to listen to him anymore, and what would you like them to do about Ukraine attacking Russian diesel production?
And you should have known this all, dummy. This was very knowable for anyone paying close attention. What feels a bit odd is that this lacks his usual sptittle-flinging bluster and threats against Zelensky. This relative restraint very much smells like desperation. The meekness is what’s notable.
Debating his conduct is pointless. He always tries to use leverage he doesn’t actually have to push people around. But that’s probably not the story here. The story is that he, and Putin, are very, very, very desperately weak right now. Trump wants the money train to resume. He has nothing left to try and blackmail Ukraine into a bad peace. Putin is trying to find a way to stay alive during a failing war that he caused that hasn’t given him anywhere near the kind of return that he can call any kind of worthwhile victory.
The point? Ukraine is doing EXACTLY what they should. As expected, they are bringing their Pelican domestic ballsitic missile program online, and Russia probably has no effective defense against it.
They’re squealing like stuck pigs. Russia ONLY responds to pain. This is how Ukraine gets them to stop.
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My car runs on diesel and yes, the prices are going up steep. But that’s meaningless compared to what Ukraine is going through for 4,5 years now. Do what you need to do to stop Russia.
Absolutely. They are and they will.
The fascinating bit is how Trump is surprised by any of it.
He’s just trying to shift focus from the fact that most of the price increase comes from his war against Iran.
The price started increasing when the Straight of Hormuz was closed, not due to Ukraine defending itself. Get fucked Trump.
Absolutely. But in his usual manner, he’s trying to scapegoat Ukraine instead of taking accountability.
That’s normal (for him). What isn’t is how restrained he is about it. If he were capable of learning, you might get the impression that he is FINALLY understanding that there’s nothing he can do about this colossal mess he’s stepped into.
This stage is where the 80’s capitalist version of him looks for a cut & run exit, where you saddle the company that can’t be saved with debt, steal everything you can before it crashes. The only problem is that company is the United States itself.
The word choices are fascinating. ‘Russia “lost control” of it’s oil refining industry’. That’s a funny way to avoid saying Ukraine has successfully destroyed it.
No dobut. But how effective is that going to be. Who’s going to buy that?
They already pulled their support from ukraine. What other levers does the U.S. have to pressure Ukraine to stop doing the most effective thing that they’re using against the russians?
Trump does not have the cards.
Isn’t it hysterical how simply BAD he is at shaking people down? Forget morality, motivations or anything else. He’s just…BAD at negotiations. A sputtering buffoon who always tries to use leverage he doesn’t actually have.
He’s already pulled all US aid and now finds himself completely impotent to influence Ukraine. Congratulations, dummy - he used his only weapon. The idea of what MIGHT happen if the U.S. ended all support was worth WAY more than the reality. Europe and the Ukrainians found ways to live without the US sending mostly obsolete, 40 year old Cold War platform stockpiles to fight with. And now he has nothing to threaten Ukraine with anymore.
This diapered vulgar talking yam is just such an ineffective fool.
Had the orange pants shitter not stopped sending Patriots missiles to Ukraine, they might not have needed to escalate deep into Russia. Also, when Ukraine first started bombing Russian refineries, gas and diesel prices in the US were hardly affected.
Yea if you check the price history, diesel was fairly stable riiight up until his stupid ass started fucking around in Iran. The start of russias invasion had significantly more impact on diesel prices than any of Ukraine’s actions during the war.
Besides, russia stopped diesel export long long time ago, so it doesn’t affect the price - it affects availability at the russian market. Which affects their ability to gather crops. So they are desperate.
I think the chain is fairly short, he dispatched some diplomats to achieve pause in russian invasion prior to midterms. Russians found a way to dumbfold US diplomats into requesting attacks on diesel to stop as a requirements for any peace talks. That was relayed to Trump.
They didn’t account for the position of Ukraine, because this idiots don’t see it as a separate player. Its not aligning with their realpolitik spheres of influence worldview.
No kidding. If anything, this shows the direct line from Russian interests to Trump’s mouth.
I think it’s that simple - he has been on their payroll for 50 years, and the cheques are getting smaller and less frequent. Already you see shithead shills lower down the narrative-pushing feed trough change their tune about Russia once their payments stopped.
My car runs on diesel and yes, the prices are going up steep. But that’s meaningless compared to what Ukraine is going through for 4,5 years now.
Unless you happen to live in Russia, that is.
I love that Ukraine is just treating him like a grandparent with dementia too.
Trump says Ukraine agreed to stop attacking Russian refineries. Ukraine praises him… and launched more drones at Russian refineries.
Exactly. Ukraine has survived his bullying nonsense and found mitigation strategies for his childlike tantrums. He’s not a serious mind.
He’s one of the weakest political leaders in history. An utter fool so completely consumed by bullying and undeserved ego that he can’t even comprehend the pieces on the game board, much less move them around with any skill or strategy.
Odd, I thought it was all in Trumps head that Ukraine stops the refinery strikes. Never saw any acknowledgment from Ukraine.
Indeed, Ukraine didn’t stop the strikes, emphasizing that any ceasefire must be mutual.
And knowing that it wouldn’t be. Ukraine probably thinks it will be in a better position 3-6 months from now and Russia will be in a worse one. A ceasefire is probably by far the most likely end of this phase of the war.
Then, a post-Putin process starts. All of the deferred pain of this stupid war will start to destroy Russia, he will eventually go tits up one way or another, there will - as is Russian tradition - be a power struggle of ethno-corporate warlord factions. They will fight among themselves, then blame the last guy for everything, just like they did with Nicholas II, Stalin, Kruschev, Brezhnev, Gorbachev & Yeltsin. Russia always loses wars, blames the leader, and is weaker coming out the other side.
All the internal convulsions that Russia is going to descend in to creates opportunities for Ukraine to rebuild itself without having to commit resources it doesn’t have to eject the Russians today. This is now a long game, and Russia has already lost.
A ceasefire sounds very rational and logical to sane observers. Yet it is impossible.
Moscovia is cursed by its usual conundrum: huge resources are invested into Czar’s “face”, and they can’t be pulled out in any way except the demotion of the Czar.
His “face” is the consensus of the Kremlin towers. It must be infallible until it is overturned, as you rightly describe. So they can’t back off on their insane annexation decisions, which they have already embedded in their “constitution”, until their whole empire collapses, with internal convulsions you mention.
They similarly lost wars many times previously, when Moscovia faced a consolidated international coalition. And the Czar was demoted every time.
On the other hand, the ceasefire was tried many times before, during Minsk agreements. It proved to be impossible, since Moscovians lack the discipline to maintain it, and can’t agree to the presence of foreign troops to enforce it.
So indeed this is a long game.
Totally agree with you - this war probably lasts as long as he does. In short - they are not ALLOWED to simply lose a war of aggression. And especially to a perceived inferior race like the little brother ukrainians. But - would they be allowed to lose to NATO, in a short, intense engamgent? Maybe - way above my paygrade.
Is there an offramp other than his death/ouster? What would it look like? If you accept that they cannot accept losing to Ukraine, but they COULD lose to NATO…consider this scenario. They launch a quick, chaotic attack on Estonia - furthest away from Poland, smallest Baltic contry. Perceived to be not geopolitically important enough to ACTUALLY fight for per Article 5. Their star asset Krasnov does his last, final job and keeps the U.S. uninvolved, therefore in theory mooting Article 5.
The goal isn’t to hold territory. They don’t even care if they get slaughtered. They probably lose some of the Baltic Fleet, and some more of the shadow fleet tankers. What Finland and Poland do here is vital - whether they decide to respond unilaterally indepedent of Article 5 commitments. The eastern nato members might decide that direct conflict with russia is inevitable, as an attack on the Baltics is proof that Pootz’s malign ambition is not limited to Ukraine. If you’re going to have a fight - better to do it in your neighbors yard than in your own. The rest of European NATO will probably do what they have throughout this war - incremental support starting with more air defence inventory and maybe some planes to assist with drone interception. That’s limp, but perhaps realistic. And more importantly - it’s the roots of a no-fly zone that would mitigate Russia’s most effective tactic against Ukraine: massed drone attacks.
So in short - a brief, chaotic attack on Estonia, and then assess next steps on NATO’s response. But if they DID get punched back hard in the face and get bogged down quickly, they use that to say “We stood up to the full might of NATO!!” , then scurry back to Mordor and come up with their next plan of corrosive fuckery.
Is it a great plan? No. It invites many dangers. But back to your point - they can’t stop under the current conditions. In case of a ceasefire as of this sentence, the current land they sit on isn’t enough of a prize compared to what they’ve lost. But if they told themselves “we destroyed NATO by showing Article 5 is just words on a page”. Add that symbolic “win”, in addition to still holding Crimea and Donbas plus fragments of Zaporhizia and Kherson…that MIGHT be enough to keep Putin alive for a while to come up with a better plan.
Well, they already emphasize on their TV that they are standing against the NATO.
Let me tell you the scenario we must be prepared for:
During contested 2028-2029 US election period, making use of the US internal polarization and strife, and the rise of right parties in Europe, China launches an attack on Taiwan, North Korea on South Korea, Iran and Houthis with Hamas on Arab States and Israel, and Moscovia launches an attack on Baltic States - all perfectly coordinated and simultaneous.
If you study the history of WWII, you discover how alliances slowly crystallized and radicalised. First there were proxy wars, like those in Spain or Manchuria, until finally the superpowers, first rather unwillingly, went into full action.
I’m afraid that is how history works, and the coordinated clash of superpowers themselves, namely of the US and China with their alliances, appears extremely likely, even though people try to avoid it.
The brutal natural selection happens on this grand scale as well, whether we like it or not.
I think you’re exactly right, mate. The 20th centry “eastern world” never went away. The USSR-China axis STILL considers itself entitled to taking more than they currently have, if for no other reason than the glory of Dear Leader, and for proof that their societies are superior to the decadent west. These last holdout ghouls leading Cold War superpower alumni don’t think like we do, and they want to preserve their privileged way of life.
The kink in the hose for your timeline is I don’t think Russia can conitnue to bleed at this rate until a coordinated 2028-29 period and still retain significant offensive potential suitable for conquering enough land to make the entire thing worthwhile.
American, Germany and French presidencies are very important to watch in the next couple of years. Trump is in his final act, but whatever comes after Macron and Merz is unlikely to have the same steadfast support for Ukraine.
Well, the broken clock is right. Russia is losing control of its refineries because of Ukraine.
The foundational argument—that Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining infrastructure do more harm to global markets than to the frontline military effort—was first developed by the Biden administration in March–April 2024.
National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin explicitly warned Kyiv in 2024 against striking Russian oil refineries, arguing that it risked triggering a global energy shock.
And were they wrong? And why wouldn’t anyone in the Trump administration understand this? But this puts striking the oil and gas in isolation with zero context as to why. Namely because Russia refuses to stop it’s terror war of extermination against Ukraine. What are they supposed to do?
Biden’s reasoning has turned out absolutely correct. Trump pulled all American aid, and only well into Trump administration did Ukraine start to attack Russia’s enabling Oil & Gas industry. Blaming Biden raises more red flags than you’ll see at a Chinese embassy.
Can’t really tell if it caused a shock, as it is but a ripple compared to Trump’s catastrophe of Hormuz.
Fuel supplies are a lag indicator - attacks in the short term affects supply being created today. Stuff in transit is already en route to the network.
But - absolutely - if there’s a pie chart for “what’s causing retail diesel prices to skyrocket”…the MUCH larger slice is the Iran war than a 4-year old conflict in Ukraine where Russian production has been under attack for nearly a year.
Why even bother looking for truth and consistency in the diarrhea that flows from his distended blowhole?
Jake Sullivan was a cowardly fuckwit trapped in an ossified Kissinger-esque geopolitical mentality, working for an ossified out of touch corporatist boomer. The chronic hesitantly of the Biden administration after the 2022 invasion kicked off was dismaying at first, and inexcusable as time went on.
The orange regime is worse, to be sure, but when the “best” reaction we have is to prioritize the export capacity of an expansionist fascist adversary nation, it begins to look like we’re splitting hairs.
This isn’t a competition of what american presidency was more virtous in it’s support of ukraine. Since Trump has done nothing to help Ukraine and much to harm it, that wouldn’t be much of a contest anyways.
It’s not that simple to just suggest ‘both sides chose poorly’, even though Biden’s team was nowhere as near as aggressive as they should have been IMO. But let’s play devil’s avocado for a minute here - you can only make decisions with what was known at the time. Let’s say you’re a Western intelligence analyst during 2022-23, here’s what you know and have to respond to:
- This war was ALWAYS going to happen.
- Russia seemed stronger than it actually was. And Ukraine WAS stronger than it seemed.
- Russia isn’t going to give up it’s maximalist goals of conquering Ukraine. You can’t REALLY stop them.
- Russia is going to continue it’s corrisve fuckery and mischevous invasions as long as it’s able.
- Nobody knows how far China is going to go to enable this war. Or it’s affect on their plan to invade Taiwan
- Nobody want WW3. Political suicide and hundreds of thousands or millions of lives lost.
So what do you do?
Make Russia to lose just enough, long enough, to really regret it and maybe not even be ABLE to do this again. And have it show China that it’s a bad idea to get into a protracted war with an untested military.
If you accept those terms, then supporting Ukraine incrementally with just enough to keep the Russian war machine bleeding until it dies makes perfect sense. It’s a salami-slice strategy where the U.S. can say, credibly, … we TOLD you not to do this. Is it horrible? Yes. Ukrainians have suffered and died as a result - but guess what? Whose fault is that? Not NATO’s.
The bastard black-hearted ghouls in the Russian petromafia were ALWAYS going to do this. Always. This is a 1,000 year project of abuse and brutality, and it’s in it’s final act of convulsive divorce. There is no empire without the crown jewel colony of Ukraine. It acts as a buffer state AND launch pad for the next phase of their conquest of Europe, which was also ALWAYS going to happen while these sick 20th-century aggrieved demons were in charge.
We’re still not quite grateful enough to the Ukrainians for their courage and feorcity in de-fanging the worst project in the universe. Russia is completely dedicated to sowing corrosive bullshit and spreading death around the globe just for the LOLz. While there might have been things that NATO could have done that would alter portions of the plan and it’s timeline - to assume that they could have prevented Russia from invading Ukraine at all is just revisionist delusions. This war was ALWAYS happening in Putin’s lifetime. It was supposed to be his legacy defining master stroke.
What if Biden had enacted beefy measures? Would it ever include ground forces? Or would it be limited to an attempt at a no-fly zone and missile strikes? Probably the latter. The current Iran experience for Trump shows you CLEARLY the hard limits of air power only, and that’s in a country 1/50th the size of Russia. A half-assed air power only war doesn’t work against a sizable nation state, period. It wouldn’t have worked against Russia and you’ be forgiven for saying that it was right and wise not to.
Would we ALL have liked Tom Cruise leading a squadron of F-14’s and A-10’s come flying over the horizon and strafe the Russians to the cracking soundtrack of Rock You Like A Hurricane causing the orcs to scurry back to Mordor shaking their grimy little fists about being thwarted? Sure. But that’s movie stuff.
I’m not excusing any of the limp dick decisions that Biden made - but his strategy was a hell of a lot better than Trump’s. History may show it was a pretty damn good one. Each small incremental step the west took made the war harder for Russia without any single step being large enough for Russia to go on tilt and massively over-react to. The Rammstein Conference & PURL initiative had a long term increemental roadmap. First Javelins & NLAWs. Then Artillery ammo. Then HIMARS. Then IFV’s and APCs. Then Tanks. Then Storm Shadows & Scalps. Then Patriots & NASAMS. Then F-16’s & Mirages. Increasing financial aid and intelligence throughout. Easy to debate it’s morality, but it’s at least a plan.
BTW - the war Trump insisted he would end in “one day, 24 hours” has lasted longer under his watch than it did under Biden’s.
Thank you for your wholehearted support for Ukraine 🙏🏻 The painful transformation of the world order is still far from over, yet it seems we are doing our humble parts rather well.
I’m not a tough guy, in any war I’d be grateful if my imminent death was at least clean. I would not be a hero. But I do recognise that everyone who is put in a position to take arms against evil and manages at least to show up and try, that person is heroic in my book. It burns me how much of that burden has been borne by Ukrainians.
Thank you for your compassion 🙏🏻
The Ukraine is situated at the open crossroads of imperial conquests, with its people slaughtered en masse or deceived many times. Being deceived, we even participated in imperial conquests, with a heavy price to pay. Hence war is one of the things Ukrainians are highly experienced in.
So it appears that the history decided that we are hardened enough, and gave us a chance to show up and try to build and defend a free Ukraine, with the first ever strong international support, that we never had previously.
I’ve donated to the war fund before, but it’s been a while. Is there one you like?
Thank you for your kind support 🙏🏻 When I donate, I do it directly to people I know personally. So I trust your own judgement in donating.
Sensationally well. I’m a Ukrainian-Canadian myself with 7 great uncles who fought in the Polish Army. Through all of this filth, I STILL am at heart optimistic, as a viable, european-aligned Ukrainian state seems more likely to survive than the petromafia gangster ghoul brutality project in Moscow.
It didn’t seem likely to serious thinkers that this would be the case four and a half years on from Feb 2022. I don’t deserve to feel proud, sitting behind a keyboard, but I am proud of Ukraine. We have always been proud and noble people used to having our dickhead neighbors try and push us around. And here in our lifetime, Ukraine is standing up to the Beasts in the East and saying - No More. Slava Ukraini.
Heroyam Slava!
Yes, we will break away from the empire and prosper, like Poland did.
The outdated empires will go extinct like dinosaurs have, with a healthy international order of sovereign nations emerging.
