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The Danish Defence Intelligence Service said on Thursday that there was a “low but growing risk” that Russia could move a small number of troops, possibly without insignia, into a neighbouring country or use long-range weapons on infrastructure used to support Ukraine.

“It could involve the deployment of military forces into a limited area inside Nato countries bordering Russia — for instance, under the pretext of protecting local Russian minorities,” Thomas Ahrenkiel, the head of the DDIS, told a news conference. “The aim would be to divide the alliance.”

The Danish statement is the most explicit warning yet about Russia’s plans following a number of “hybrid” attacks, including a foiled drone strike on Leipzig airport in Germany and a Russian ship firing flares at a Danish helicopter over the Baltic Sea.

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Danish intelligence said that Russia was under more pressure than at any other time since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The intelligence service added that there was “no prospect” of Russia making a major breakthrough in the next six months.

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Russia would intensify its hybrid attacks against European countries with “greater consequences” for those targeted, the Danes warned, including “destructive cyber attacks that cripple societal functions as well as sabotage attacks that carry a high risk of casualties”.

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Danish intelligence said on Thursday that it still believed it would take Russia six months to wage a local war against a neighbouring country that belongs to Nato, two years to pose a credible threat of a regional war and five years to launch a large-scale war in Europe.

But it added that it now thought that Russia could escalate against the west through increased hybrid attacks or a limited military attack in the coming months “even if the war in Ukraine continues”.