Although Iowa isn't deep red like its neighbor to the west, Nebraska, the state has been a frequent source of frustration to Democrats. President Barack Obama won Iowa in both 2008 and 2012, but the state went to Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020. And Iowa is home to Religious Right-friendly Republicans...
Trump won in 2016 and came within a few thousand votes of doing so in 2020. His supporters now are even more fired up and enthusiastic.
Most people who vote for Biden do so grudgingly. So this is an uphill battle for Democrats
Until the priorities of the the Democratic party become the priorities of their voters, every election will be an uphill battle for them. This is the contrast between the two parties. We may hate, and should, the priorities of segregation, hate, racism, and classissm represented by the Republican party, but to be clear, these are also the priorities and values of their voters. This alignment makes them formidable, no doubt.
However, the Republicans has set themselves up for an easy layup in 2016, and frankly, screwed the pooch in 2020 with their COVID response (although it’s not clear to me they could have done otherwise with their base). Bidens got some strong Ws to run on and, frankly, has shocked many with his political competance.
The elections for the next cycle will be close, but a clear Democratic victory. The margin will increase in the next cycle. After that, I expect a third conservative party to manifest, because conservative voters will be having a hard time voting for a party incapable of winning.
I don’t expect white nationalism to go away. I think it’s an occified feature of the American body politic. Howerber, and because of this, it will make it difficult/ impossible for conservatives to compete effectively for the Presidency.