This is, of course, a lie. Very on brand. But is there insight in Trump’s recent increasingly unhinged boasts, which are out there, even for him.
The unilateral Diesel Deal just smashes the idea of sanctions, but - more than that - it can’t possibly make a lick of difference to U.S. retail diesel prices. There just isn’t enough of it, and that ignores the very real possibility that Russia doesn’t even actually deliver all of it. Point being - it won’t move American diesel prices at all, which defeats the purpose of trying to get some midterm-saving gas price relief. That was always a stupid plan anyways, since delivering 12 days worth of U.S. diesel consumption does nothing to the gasoline price anyways, which affects way way WAY more persuadable voters than diesel does.
Then why do it? Keeping in mind he’s fully capable of simply lying in childish, absurd ways just from pure idiotic spite. His reliable, obedient smooth brain, mouth-breathing supporters will at least remember “hUrR deRr TrUmP g0t uS deEzul”, even if there is zero change to what it costs them to fill up their vehcile today.
Well…if it won’t budge diesel prices in a way that’s politcally useful, maybe it’s purpose is as a pretext for him to do more obvious shitty things to Ukraine. But that’s not news and shouldn’t be a surprise to any serious minded watcher. For the record - the first Russian tanker as part of this scheme left port on Sept 22nd. This WAS clearly the plan for some time now. But it’s an incredibly stupid plan on it’s face.
Take several steps back. Trump’s conduct in two years has swung from “If I’m president I will have that war settled in 1 day, 24 hours”. Then through the usual ham-fisted bullshit of berating Zelensky and the Ukrainians, telling them they ‘have no cards’, pulling U.S. military and economic aid, now threatening to undo the PURL initiative where Europe buys U.S. weapons (at full cost) for Ukraine without America paying for anything.
All of it is incredibly desperate. Nothing has made a lick of difference to the fundamental state of the war. And it seems like the orders he’s being given now matches perfectly with his clinging desperation and fear about what’s going to happen in the midterms in a couple of weeks. He always shouts the loudest when he’s weakest.
He’s a morbidly obsese toddler whose likely lifespan is probably in months, not years. And unless he’s able to simply overthrow american democracy in 3 weeks, he’s about to have his balls cut off politically for his (probable) lame duck period. He isn’t going to be able to operate as freely, and the Russians probably fully realize that too.
Hence why the crazy seems turned up to 12 recently. His pathetic thrashing reveals that he’s pissed away any leverage he DID have in influencing the conclusion of the war. The russians, for their part, are using him as a megaphone for their ludicrous maximalist goals. There’s a silver lining there that at least they seem to understand that things aren’t going to get better for them.
The feared post-Russian election mobilization doesn’t seem to have been enacted in any meaingful way. In short - they aren’t doing anything that looks like a war-altering strategy, and the loudest piece on the board is Trump flinging handfuls of dookie asking for Ukraine to give up something that, remember, is substantially less than what Russia wanted in Feb 2022.
They aren’t in a good position, and neither is he. Ukraine would probably do well to continue to weather this storm for a little bit longer, if they want a truly just and lasting peace.
Thoughts?
Not only Ukraine and Russia, but Russia and any of the other former Soviet republics. Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia all threw in with NATO fairly early because they were bordering Europe and had that opportunity. Georgia, Kazakhstan and other Asia former Soviet republics never had that option even if they had the same concerns on post-Soviet Russian imperialism.
Additionally, Armenia learned the hard way how much value a Russian defense pact has when the wishdotcom NATO of CSTO provided nothing when Azerbaijan exercised its military power. Iran also to some extent. I didn’t see Putin standing up up for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei when US bombs started falling (even if the Iran attack is stupid on the US’s part).
Ukraine has given a gift to the world by exhausting the Soviet stockpiles of working weapons and exposing for once and for all the lie of Russian paper military assets. The world owes Ukraine a great gift for this and its not fair that Ukraine is paying in blood for this.
That line is a pretty decent intro to understanding Geopolitics.
Bang on mate. Ukraine’s future is the same as Poland, Finland, Romania, Czechia etc. Namely - relatively prosperous, EU & NATO aligned, flawed democracies. And that’s as if there are any other kind of democracy other than flawed. They won’t exist as Russian Gangster Colonies again. If this were a strategy game instead of real life - you wouldn’t want to be russia right now. They’re losing The Big Game. Badly.
Destroyed their already-obsolete Soviet inheritance. Became junior vassals to China. Pissed away a 30 year war chest for a failed Cold War Revenge project. Terminal demographic decline. 4th rate allies of limited diplomatic usefulness who only run on bribes. Their strategic resources are less profirtable and less important to the world going forward. They don’t export anything except gas & mischief. Their profitable colonies have been stripped away, and are probably never, ever coming back. Worse - they’ve been turned into bitter, capable, mortal enemies.
Russia is a dead empire, a hollowed out gangster slave state, bleeding out before our eyes but still capable of causing pain. The barbaric brutality is evidence of their desparation. Their best case scenario is ending up in a rump state like Turkey that shook out of a 300 year decline of the Ottoman Empire. But getting there is going to be painful and messy. Just like the Ottomans, they have seen collapses, declining standards of living, loss of trade networks, overthrow of their monarchy, losing their prestigious outer colonies, losing wars they ought to have won except for poor leadership, overconfidence in a rotten army and internal corruption from top to bottom of their society.
It’s hard to grasp long historical timelines while you’re literally in them day to day. What serious minded brains that remain in Russia probably realize fully that they’re literally dying, and this last hail mary to ‘steal’ Ukraine reflects their narrow, thuggish thinking. Think of what they might have achieved as a stable, prosperous “anti-west” alternative in the last 35 years instead of just always tripling down on violence, greed and corruption. They’re prisoners of the hubris and stupidity of over promoted gangsters.
This is what really confuses me most about Putin’s actions invading Ukraine. Russia had solid credentials as a world player in energy being Europe’s prime source and mutual co-owned businesses between Russia and Europe. Russian aerospace products were being regularly purchased by Europe (whole orbital rockets) and the USA (rocket engines for multiple US orbital rockets) in addition to Russia’s own domestic space launch services for customers around the globe. Russia had a strong weapons export trade to Turkey, India, and many other nations. The SU-57 fighter was a serious contender for countries that wanted a 5th generation aircraft without being locked into the US hegemony.
Putin threw all of that away with his 2022 invasion. He even had Crimea at that point and a chunk of the Donbas, and the world largely ignored it. The full invasion was just too much and now Russia is the global pariah (with trump’s America shortly behind).
Birds fly, fish swim and thieves steal. It’s pretty on brand for a gangster thug to choose what they know when push comes to shove. It’s often said that Putin has played 4D chess brilliantly, running circles around gullible leaders charmed by cheap energy. I say this all the time - but I think he’s not a chess player - he’s a poker player who always bluffs and punches down on players he thinks won’t hit back and relies on his fat chip stack to scare the other serious players away. His bluff got called this time, because he gave ukraine no other choice.
There’s a really great analyst named Sarah Paine who quotes Sun Tzu that Putin put Ukraine on “death ground”. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/4HZpnLkNK2E
The basic premise is that death ground is literally where your opponent will absolutely fight you to the death, because there is no other alternative. Russian invasions in Georgia and Crimea succeeded, because those were relativley small/limited engagements compared to what was plainly and obviously a planned total conquest and cultural genocide planned for Ukraine. There was a way in both of those narrow wars for both Ukraine and Georgia to survive given the limits of what the Russians chose to do. In Ukraine 2022, there was no restraint at all - it was obvious to everyone involved that this was an existential struggle.
And as soon as it went sideways, Pooty did what he has ALWAYS done - and that sure as shit isn’t to apolgize and back off. He doubled down. Escalate to de-escalate. Hubris kept him going long after military rationalism told him that the long term prize isn’t worth what it’s costing them.
Yeah dude, I dunno. Why did the Russians do this? They had the European energy market by the balls. They were more or less a serious nation state and a peer to China. Now they are revealed as a hollow mafia-run slave state pariah with zero political credibility and a shattered army. They only really understand pain, maybe. The organizing principle of their society seems to be “do as I say or I’ll kill you”. Violence and thuggery are never far away, rules don’t really matter, only power does. Why did he choose this way? When you only have a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
It requires deeper study. It’s not just sufficient to say “Russians are thieves”. Even though there’s lots of evidence for it - like an old Soviet expression “The man who doesn’t steal, steals from his family”. Centuries of brutal cruelty and power abuses will affect your national moral compass. Putin has created a world of near perfect corruption and brutality - and he believes in the power of both absolutely. Those tools have ALWAYS worked. Why wouldn’t it work this time? The grand, legacy-cementing bold move to re-take the crown jewel colony of the russian empire? It’s not that hard to imagine him thinking this way, and thinking that it would make retaking Kazakhstan and the Baltics that much easier by tackling Ukraine first.
Don’t overlook the Trump thing either. Trump was a unique, once-in-1000-years gift to russia. If they didn’t use him to propel themelves to glory, what the hell was the point of having groomed the asset for 40 years anyways? Or simple mortality - he accepts he is going to die and wants to write his own chapter in the history books as The Great Restorer, but see it with his own eyes. Step out onto the Kremlin balcony and watch your troops walk by in crisp order, jets flying overhead, adoring slaves waving little flags and cheering your name. Might not be your idea of a good Saturday, but - it appeals to morally empty, black hearted murderer ghouls like him.
But it also could be that he was bored, rash and simply fucked up. Putin had been doing a lot of shrewd moves for a long time, and saw that the pace/progress of his empire restoration wasn’t going as fast as he wanted or worse - wouldn’t happen during his lifetime without stronger measures. You’d have to assume he REALLY thought he would win any serious conflict with Ukraine. Most people did. All that to say - he got impatient. People are absolutely capable of being straight up wrong, especially when you invest WAY too much power in one person.