The war in Iran has put 2026 on track for a dip in annual fossil-fuel carbon emissions

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/54245880

The U.S. war with Iran has raised fossil fuel prices so much that the resulting drop in oil demand has put the world on track to see a rare dip in carbon emissions from these sources in 2026.

Between 2019 and 2025, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels grew by about 0.8 percent annually, according to a new study published in Nature Climate Change. But 2026 is set to buck that trend: high oil prices, as well as the continued rise of green technology—solar power, wind and electric cars—will cause a “short-term” 0.4 percent drop, according to the study.

“The high petrol prices following the war in Iran are reducing oil use and keeping emissions low,” says the study’s lead author Corinne Le Quéré, a professor of climate change science at the University of East Anglia in England. “But that’s not the whole story: The expansion of renewable energy has progressed a lot in recent years, led by China. And [along with electric vehicles], this is offsetting two thirds of the growing demand for energy.”

With all sources of carbon considered, including deforestation, total global CO2 emissions are set to continue increasing.

  • AA5BEnglish
    1·
    16 hours ago

    There’s always disagreement between the carrot and the stick. It’s high time for both: the carrot or renewable energy and EVs and the stick of higher gas prices. We’ve wasted hundreds of billions of dollars over the last few decades trying everything except renewables: it’s time to focus on building out the obvious answer rather than finding yet another way to avoid reality while making fossil fuel executives even wealthier

    But we had those incentives

    • we had incentives to build out a solar industry, but no one had the patience when it’s more profitable to just let Chinese companies do it
    • we had incentives for wind, and we do have huge generating capacity in a few areas but we were finally getting to building our wind for less resource rich areas (offshore wind in the northeast).
    • we had incentives for companies to invest in wind and solar and retooling for new technology. Spent and thrown out before any results: it’s just more profitable to buy from China
    • we had incentives for consumers to adopt solar - they were claiming a payback period of only like 5 years even here where there’s no sun
    • we had incentives to make EVs cost comparable to gas cars, to guarantee a market to manufacturers and to help Manufacturers transition. It was incentive driven for all sides

    I hate to be cynical of incentives but our entire economy of the last 12 years is the “face eating leopard” economy. Continuing to step on our own feet as we stumble drunkenly down the stairs is an underrated cause of Chinas success