The war in Iran has put 2026 on track for a dip in annual fossil-fuel carbon emissions

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/54245880

The U.S. war with Iran has raised fossil fuel prices so much that the resulting drop in oil demand has put the world on track to see a rare dip in carbon emissions from these sources in 2026.

Between 2019 and 2025, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels grew by about 0.8 percent annually, according to a new study published in Nature Climate Change. But 2026 is set to buck that trend: high oil prices, as well as the continued rise of green technology—solar power, wind and electric cars—will cause a “short-term” 0.4 percent drop, according to the study.

“The high petrol prices following the war in Iran are reducing oil use and keeping emissions low,” says the study’s lead author Corinne Le Quéré, a professor of climate change science at the University of East Anglia in England. “But that’s not the whole story: The expansion of renewable energy has progressed a lot in recent years, led by China. And [along with electric vehicles], this is offsetting two thirds of the growing demand for energy.”

With all sources of carbon considered, including deforestation, total global CO2 emissions are set to continue increasing.

  • AA5BEnglish
    1·
    2 days ago

    Damn, jelly. I Also calculate my EV as cutting my gas cost in half but it would be harder to beat a Prius when my electric rate is $0.36 per kWh

    It would blow that person’s mind that, …. they could drive an EV for that much FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH.

    Surprisingly this doesn’t seem to work. Maybe it’s too abstract for many? I still get responses like “but damn that would really hit your electric bill”. I mean sure but it’s only half.

    • chronicledmonocleEnglish
      1·
      2 days ago

      You sure it’s not $0.036? That seems excessively high.

      If that’s actually what you’re paying, I’d seriously consider getting solar to offset the costs.

      • AA5BEnglish
        1·
        22 hours ago

        Yeah it’s pretty damn high, and that’s why I’ve been annoyed that Trump keeps trying to kill our offshore wind farms.

        I looked into solar a few times and regret not doing so before the incentives were killed. They are still claiming seven year payback based on electricity prices and state incentives, but that upfront cost is a killer.

        The solar installer industry is still full of scammers and greasy salesmen. Every negative stereotype you’ve seen about used car salesmen is so much more true of solar installer sales. Every time I’d barely get started in the process and already feel violated. It was such an unpleasant experience I was never willing to complete the process