I am not saying he is ending it. I say he will try to prepare to end it without getting removed from power, to get away with a black eye. He might offer some sort of shady deal which Ukraine rightfully will reject. And finally he will end the operation, not getting most of his demands. But as he had all his hardliners removed he can still claim whatever he wants. Because not the winner but the person in charge decides what the truth is.

My personal expectation:

If Putin survives he will lose all occupied territories, including Crimea. But he will not pay compensation for war damage and will continue to harass Ukraine as long as he lives.

If he doesn’t survive Crimea might get a special status but doesn’t become Russian territory, in exchange for substantial reparations. Then there won’t be any major provocations.

All in all, membership in NATO is inevitable. Without NATO Ukraine will be a victim just the next time some Russian Big-Head is power-playing. Also I think EU membership is possible. When Romania joined the EU they were morally in a much worse place than Ukraine so I think it is doable if the reformers stay in power.