Russia’s nationalists are fuming over a slew of attacks on Russian territory which exposed gaps in its defenses and put it on the back foot in its invasion of Ukraine.
The prominent anonymous blogger Rybar said a recent strike on Russia’s Pskov airfield suggests Russia’s air defenses haven’t adapted to stop drone strikes. It criticized authorities for not protecting the valuable aircraft there with hangars, and compared their defenses unfavorably to those in Russian-occupied Crimea, closer to the fighter.
The Russian journalist Alexander Kots said that recent attacks showed there would be no safe place in the parts of Russia that are close to Europe, and that Russia would need to adapt.
Another blogger said that Russia’s airfields should be better protected, and another said Russia should admit the attacks as soon as they happen, rather than be forced into acknowledging them after Ukrainian sources report them.
Not convinced that its as simple as that, there was an article about a Ukrainian general or some high level commander who mentioned that they need at least 100 aircraft to get air superiority. I image in reality they need alot more as there likely to be losses (orcs are likely keeping some long range missiles in reserve to whack at Ukrainian airfields after f16s arrive), but also they need correct ammunition… loads of ammunition.
We should have gone into ammunition production overdrive as soon as it became clear that there was an attack plan brewing instead of waiting until the attack actually happens. And i refuse to believe that US did not know well in advance. Eu just sat there twiddling their thumbs instead of doing something productive about it. Shame on us.
I’m hopeful with the f16. As far as I understand it, they would increase the range at which Ukraine can destroy Russian aircrafts, range that they are severely lacking to support their offensive right now. Obviously the more the better, but even a few could make a huge difference in this case.
You’re right about the missiles and bombs though. Ultimately this is what they will need in large quantities.
As for acting before the war, everyone thought Ukraine would collapse in two weeks at best. Ukraine won its support the hard way.
Indeed. And also, some prominent people still worry about Russian “red lines” and nukes. Perhaps rightly so, I am not an expert. By ramping up support over time we tread those red lines carefully to see if they actually mean anything. There’s also probably an element of “boiling the frog” going on, too.
The American intelligence and other western ones knew but were not expected Ukraine to fight a frontal war with Russia. They thought Ukraine would fold in a matter of days or weeks. So theirs plans were to support Ukraine for an asymmetric/gorilla warfare. Hence the ride offer to balls of steel Zelensky. And boom ( pun intended) Ukraine surprised experts predictions by stopping the Russian advances, then counterattack, recaptured territories and now is bringing the war to Russia’s doorsteps. No sane people back then would have imagined Ukraine would be able to fight Russia as they are doing now. I’m sure war experts are studying that war really closely as Ukraine is rewriting the rules.
I agree with that. IMO treading this line is a matter or making Russia slowly accept its defeat. Acceptance is a process that takes time, both psychologically and for the government to prepare for it. Going too fast might scare the idiots on charge and risk them pushing the big red button if they feel like they have nothing else to lose.
That’s very true. It sad the Russian’s slow acceptance is so costly in lives and so destructive for Ukraine. But unfortunately, this is a war between 2 countries so resolve it cannot be a sprint, it is a marathon. We’ve witnessed war between countries and insurgents that resolved quickly, but that’s not the same case. Western countries made it clear they’re on it for the long time with Ukraine. So sooner hopefully not later Russia will realize it is not sustainable to continue the war. Hopefully if Biden loses the next US president would continue the same support for Ukraine. Some experts think this is Putin last play. Trying to hold on as many captured territories as possible until the next US presidency for bargaining chips.
I believe the next US elections will be a big milestone for the war indeed. But before that Ukraine can achieve big progresses too.
How “well” are we talking? A few months, sure, but further back it’s pretty easy as an autocrat to just not tell people what you’re planning, and the West appears to have fundamentally misread Putin’s motives to start with.
Probably months in advance, but before that it was difficult to predict when it was gonna happen. Russia warring into the west has been predicted by NATO military for a good while (a few years at least), they have also been preparing since then.
A squadron for F-16 running non-stop SEAD missions will allow Ukraine to use their existing MIGs much more effectively. They already have the ammunition, they currently can only use 1 of its 3 arming modes. They can’t access the SEAD firing modes without it being fired from that particular platform.