Housing is kind of finate, and land is one of the few things that literally is finite.
08 happened and no one was really ready for it. But now the banks and “investors” just won’t slow down buying, because they’re competing against each other now and not individuals.
Prices will keep going up for property, but overall sales will continue to decline. Because once a bank/corporation/investment group buys a property, they’re fucking keeping it.
Banks don’t buy properties, they foreclose on them. They will unload as fast as possible and take a write down.
Big hedge fund and other similar large investors don’t hold onto money losers, and they care about maximizing their return. If the spread between rent and sales price is this high, I’d expect some of the ones that bought a while ago to be considering selling and taking their appreciation gains vs holding onto a cash flow that is multiples lower. Plus corporate lending is a completely different animal than homeowner loans and many of these properties will soon be needing to refinance into a much higher rate. Their owners will sell rather than take a huge hit to cash flow. And many of these bought properties 5-10 years ago and did capital upgrades that are now aging. They’ll be looking to exit before the next upgrade cycle.
Smaller investors can get pretty badly burned in these markets and may not be able to hold on.
Not saying a crash is inevitable or even likely, but real estate is cyclical and we are almost certainly near the top of our current cycle.
I mean, lots of people do. Just not the ones here on lemmy. But thanks for the compliment!
I’m probably somewhat unique here inasmuch as I’m a real estate agent and landlord and I have made an attempt to get into commercial real estate. But I’ve also been homeless in my adult life and grew up with very unstable housing, so I get the angst of many people here and don’t discount it. Their feelings are completely valid.
I think the two things that people who are concerned about housing prices get wrong consistently are housing supply and the importance of financing.
Left leaning people are forever fighting against landlords and simultaneously yelling about gentrification and development. Here’s the thing. Housing was affordable when we let people build densely with relatively few restrictions. Housing today is still most affordable in places where it’s easy to build more. If that means the neighborhood character changes, oh well. Anywhere you get liberal people (and I count myself as very left wing) making rules about housing, you limit supply, prices go up. In the immortal words of pogo, we have met the enemy, and he is us. Take a look at Tokyo, the NYT did a great story about it recently, they have no problem destroying old neighborhoods to build more housing. As a result, it’s remained shockingly affordable, and has a huge percentage of small businesses because rent is cheap for small non residential spaces, too. We need to stop clinging to our old buildings and allow growth. And I say that as a man who lovingly restored a 175 year old house. It is dumb. There should be 6 families living on the plot I own, but the neighbors would never allow it.
The other thing is financing. Commercial owners have a completely different borrowing structure from owner occupied housing. They don’t have 30 year fixed rate low interest loans with low down payments and government programs to help them for x, y and z. Most commercial loans require refinancing every 5, 7, or 10 years. They also cost more than residential loans, both in up front costs and interest. So my personal residence is locked in on a 30 year note at 3%, but my rentals are in the 3.75-6% range and will require me to refinance in a few years at much higher rates. I have one that resets in 18 months. My interest rate is likely to go from 3.75 to 7.75. I owe about 100k on the house. My mortgage payments will go up $4000/year when that happens (on top of a $1000/year insurance hike last month). There’s no possible way I can raise my rent enough to cover. So I would be in the hole every month. But the bank won’t lend on a property that loses money every month. So either I come up with $100k cash or I sell the house. Sorry tenant, but you’re getting kicked out at lease expiration next year because I have to sell the house to py back the lender. If it won’t cash flow for me it won’t for anyone else, either. So the only possible buyers are home buyers who want to live in it and it needs to be vacant. Yay for a home buyer, sad for my tenant (and for me, now I am out a cash flowing property that I’d prefer to hold). The tenant will yell about greedy landlords when I tell him to get out, but I literally have no option.
Same thing with how all big developments look the same now. All driven by lenders. They won’t lend to a developer who wants to take on mom and pop businesses and quirky startups. The building is valued as a multiple of its rents, and so all the money chases national credit tenants or strong local chains that have proven they can oy high rents, and lenders all want to see recognizable name brands in those ground floor retail spaces. Developers hands are tied. Lots of developers would love to do something different but nothing different can get financed.
I could keep going but the text wall is long enough and my thumbs are tired.
It’s very unlikely to see the bubble burst again.
Housing is kind of finate, and land is one of the few things that literally is finite.
08 happened and no one was really ready for it. But now the banks and “investors” just won’t slow down buying, because they’re competing against each other now and not individuals.
Prices will keep going up for property, but overall sales will continue to decline. Because once a bank/corporation/investment group buys a property, they’re fucking keeping it.
Banks don’t buy properties, they foreclose on them. They will unload as fast as possible and take a write down.
Big hedge fund and other similar large investors don’t hold onto money losers, and they care about maximizing their return. If the spread between rent and sales price is this high, I’d expect some of the ones that bought a while ago to be considering selling and taking their appreciation gains vs holding onto a cash flow that is multiples lower. Plus corporate lending is a completely different animal than homeowner loans and many of these properties will soon be needing to refinance into a much higher rate. Their owners will sell rather than take a huge hit to cash flow. And many of these bought properties 5-10 years ago and did capital upgrades that are now aging. They’ll be looking to exit before the next upgrade cycle.
Smaller investors can get pretty badly burned in these markets and may not be able to hold on.
Not saying a crash is inevitable or even likely, but real estate is cyclical and we are almost certainly near the top of our current cycle.
I’d like to subscribe to your newsletter.
For real. Nobody else expresses this point of view and its refreshing
I mean, lots of people do. Just not the ones here on lemmy. But thanks for the compliment!
I’m probably somewhat unique here inasmuch as I’m a real estate agent and landlord and I have made an attempt to get into commercial real estate. But I’ve also been homeless in my adult life and grew up with very unstable housing, so I get the angst of many people here and don’t discount it. Their feelings are completely valid.
I think the two things that people who are concerned about housing prices get wrong consistently are housing supply and the importance of financing.
Left leaning people are forever fighting against landlords and simultaneously yelling about gentrification and development. Here’s the thing. Housing was affordable when we let people build densely with relatively few restrictions. Housing today is still most affordable in places where it’s easy to build more. If that means the neighborhood character changes, oh well. Anywhere you get liberal people (and I count myself as very left wing) making rules about housing, you limit supply, prices go up. In the immortal words of pogo, we have met the enemy, and he is us. Take a look at Tokyo, the NYT did a great story about it recently, they have no problem destroying old neighborhoods to build more housing. As a result, it’s remained shockingly affordable, and has a huge percentage of small businesses because rent is cheap for small non residential spaces, too. We need to stop clinging to our old buildings and allow growth. And I say that as a man who lovingly restored a 175 year old house. It is dumb. There should be 6 families living on the plot I own, but the neighbors would never allow it.
The other thing is financing. Commercial owners have a completely different borrowing structure from owner occupied housing. They don’t have 30 year fixed rate low interest loans with low down payments and government programs to help them for x, y and z. Most commercial loans require refinancing every 5, 7, or 10 years. They also cost more than residential loans, both in up front costs and interest. So my personal residence is locked in on a 30 year note at 3%, but my rentals are in the 3.75-6% range and will require me to refinance in a few years at much higher rates. I have one that resets in 18 months. My interest rate is likely to go from 3.75 to 7.75. I owe about 100k on the house. My mortgage payments will go up $4000/year when that happens (on top of a $1000/year insurance hike last month). There’s no possible way I can raise my rent enough to cover. So I would be in the hole every month. But the bank won’t lend on a property that loses money every month. So either I come up with $100k cash or I sell the house. Sorry tenant, but you’re getting kicked out at lease expiration next year because I have to sell the house to py back the lender. If it won’t cash flow for me it won’t for anyone else, either. So the only possible buyers are home buyers who want to live in it and it needs to be vacant. Yay for a home buyer, sad for my tenant (and for me, now I am out a cash flowing property that I’d prefer to hold). The tenant will yell about greedy landlords when I tell him to get out, but I literally have no option.
Same thing with how all big developments look the same now. All driven by lenders. They won’t lend to a developer who wants to take on mom and pop businesses and quirky startups. The building is valued as a multiple of its rents, and so all the money chases national credit tenants or strong local chains that have proven they can oy high rents, and lenders all want to see recognizable name brands in those ground floor retail spaces. Developers hands are tied. Lots of developers would love to do something different but nothing different can get financed.
I could keep going but the text wall is long enough and my thumbs are tired.
Lol
https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/02/business/family-homes-wall-street/index.html