I remember seeing a “long-term rain forecast” scam several years ago based on that principle. They claimed to be able to tell you which days would be clear in the next 50 years with 90% accuracy, but carefully worded their pitch to not imply any accuracy for claiming what days it would rain. Because it rains about 10% of days on average, this claim is technically true regardless of the contents of the forecast.
Not me, it’s like my superpower. I can tell you if a movie is going to be a flop and panned by everyone within 15 seconds of watching the trailer.
Given that like 20% of movies are successful, simply saying that everything is going to be a flop would mean you have an 80% success rate
True, but I still seem to recognize the hits as well.
Are we talking critical reception or financial success? How are you at detecting cult favourites? So many questions
Must be magic man. Or I get lucky? Or I just recognize real hype from manufactured hype a little better than others. I don’t know, lol.
they’re just pointing out how that seems such an accurate assessment
I remember seeing a “long-term rain forecast” scam several years ago based on that principle. They claimed to be able to tell you which days would be clear in the next 50 years with 90% accuracy, but carefully worded their pitch to not imply any accuracy for claiming what days it would rain. Because it rains about 10% of days on average, this claim is technically true regardless of the contents of the forecast.