I’ll note that several oil majors have made big bets in the past few weeks to the effect that oil and gas consumption will continue to rise for decades to come. If we succeed in maintaining a civilization-supporting planet, people who have not divested from fossil fuels industry will lose a lot of money.
Hmm, looking briefly at IEA exec-sum plots for ‘stated policies’, only coal really peaks and that’s about now (and in reality, imho, this depends mainly on the chinese construction bubble bursting, rather than intentional policy ). Oil and gas barely peak, just shift towards developing countries. Anyway trying to predict these things doesn’t make sense, the question should be where do we want to go, not where are we going. So, time to update the IEA data in my own model…