Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is more confident than ever that time is on his side in Ukraine and believes the Western world ultimately lacks the political will to oppose him, writes Ivan Verstyuk.
One thing not being mentioned much… when it comes to war exhaustion, your casus belli, or the reason you got into the war in the first place, matters quite a lot.
Overseas adventures in communist-leaning or oil-rich countries is one thing. Many people won’t agree with those excuses, war exhaustion will be rapid and severe.
Helping a people defend their homes is something every human can understand and, in principle, agree with. War exhaustion, while still present, will be more limited, growing slower and to a smaller overall degree of intensity.
Because of this very basic fact, I do not foresee western will to assist Ukraine flagging as much as many analysts worry. Some flagging is inevitable. A severe reduction in will is not.
How many calls were there to end WW2? Some, but not many. People mostly understood the broad strokes of it. I think people mostly understand the broad strokes of the Russo-Ukrainian War as well, despite the best and continuing efforts of Russian war propaganda.
I want to believe you are right. But ethical considerations only go so far when a growing part of your own population is suffering an existential crisis of its own. Moreover, the past years have shown just how fickle and irrational many people are. It might not take a whole lot of convincing by the demagogues lurking in the shadows to get the people of the West to drop Ukraine. The fact that many of them, like Orban, Trump, and the German right-wingers are all buddy-buddy with Putin is surely a coincidence.
Not everyone needs to lie in order to get people to help them. If you’re on defense, and every war has a defender and an attacker, then people should be able to figure it out if they’re not too dumb.
One thing not being mentioned much… when it comes to war exhaustion, your casus belli, or the reason you got into the war in the first place, matters quite a lot.
Overseas adventures in communist-leaning or oil-rich countries is one thing. Many people won’t agree with those excuses, war exhaustion will be rapid and severe.
Helping a people defend their homes is something every human can understand and, in principle, agree with. War exhaustion, while still present, will be more limited, growing slower and to a smaller overall degree of intensity.
Because of this very basic fact, I do not foresee western will to assist Ukraine flagging as much as many analysts worry. Some flagging is inevitable. A severe reduction in will is not.
How many calls were there to end WW2? Some, but not many. People mostly understood the broad strokes of it. I think people mostly understand the broad strokes of the Russo-Ukrainian War as well, despite the best and continuing efforts of Russian war propaganda.
Don’t discount the influence of Kremlin propaganda on social media.
I want to believe you are right. But ethical considerations only go so far when a growing part of your own population is suffering an existential crisis of its own. Moreover, the past years have shown just how fickle and irrational many people are. It might not take a whole lot of convincing by the demagogues lurking in the shadows to get the people of the West to drop Ukraine. The fact that many of them, like Orban, Trump, and the German right-wingers are all buddy-buddy with Putin is surely a coincidence.
The countries involved all heavily relied on propagana
Not everyone needs to lie in order to get people to help them. If you’re on defense, and every war has a defender and an attacker, then people should be able to figure it out if they’re not too dumb.
From the official Russian viewpoint, Russia is merely defending the poor oppressed people of Ukraine from their evil Nazi western oppressors