“We recognize that, in the next four years, our decision may cause us to have an even more difficult time. But we believe that this will give us a chance to recalibrate, and the Democrats will have to consider whether they want our votes or not.”
That’s gotta be one of the strangest reasonings I’ve heard in a while.
Of course we know they were swing states. It was the almost the same set of states in 2016 that were going to be close that they were from the election before that, and 2020 was similar too. We have pretty decent polling that shows which states are harder to call than others.
I don’t know what the “blue wall” is, but people were surprised that Clinton lost. This has absolutely no bearing on the fact that there were 11 battleground states in 2016, Trump won 5 of them. He didn’t win any democratic strong-holds, as you seem to be claiming. They were all states that could have reasonably gone either way, and they went Trump’s way.
So using your own logic, that their inaction of not-supporting Biden makes them Trump supporters, if you live in a non-swing state and don’t move to a swing state, your inaction is helping Trump win thus you are a Trump supporter. It’s really that simple. Accept this use of your logic or accept that the logic is broken. Remember, two party system, so if you don’t do what you can to get Biden elected, then you are actually supporting Trump.
Swing state doesn’t mean “it’s going to go from one party to another” it means “the outcome is reasonably uncertain.” Basically, polling is close enough that a lot more votes need to come in before someone can reasonably call the election a win for one candidate or another. Like for CA, not hard to call it’s going to go blue within the first few hours of voting. PA, however, is really hard to tell before counting almost all of the votes. If you remember 2020, Trump was ahead until they counted all the votes and Biden ended up winning
You know who else won’t vote in swing states? People who don’t live there. Again, your logic, if you don’t move to a swing state, you are helping Trump.
But they are also not supporting Trump so using this busted-ass logic, they are also Biden supporters. It’s mind-boggling it’s still being argued.
I didn’t say you were, I just pointed out how little critical thought seemed to be going into the argument that I was “splitting hairs” when, in reality, it is you splitting hairs.
https://web.archive.org/web/20150322214945/http://rare.us/story/democrats-say-a-2016-electoral-college-blue-wall-means-republicans-cant-win-wrong/
As I said, some people suspected the blue wall theory was wrong, but the Democratic party pushed the idea that these states were solid blue strong holds which turned out to be wrong. The point is a person could reasonably believe their state is not a swing state before an election, so they assume their vote doesn’t matter, and then be in for a rude awakening after the election. Hindsight is 20/20.
Mathematically speaking that is the case, since we live in two party system. If a group of people makes Biden lose with low voter turnout they are supporting Trump, since one of the two candidates has to win.
Again this is not relevant as the group of people we are discussing are planning on not voting, in historic swing states. I will point out there is no source that can verify with 100% certainty which of the 50 states with be swing states in 2024. There are of course some good guesses backed up with statistics, but statistics are not guarantees. If enough people decide to not vote, any state is more likely to swing Republican as the system disproportionality benefits low population areas that tend to go Republican.
Yes. For example, the results in Florida used to be considered reasonably uncertain, with either party having a chance to win, but now they are a solid red state that consistently votes Republican. Our focus is in on swing states that might turn red for the presidential race because of low voter turn out in 2024.
This tangent isn’t helping your argument. Again, we don’t know for certain which states will be swing states in the next election. But regardless of that it isn’t relevant because these people are threatening to not vote, in historic swing states.
It is not the case that a typical voter in this country is completely random. While it is a generalization, the Democrats represent people in and around high population cities, where as Republicans represent low populations in rural areas. More people in America are represented by the Democratic party. A minority of people are hard core Trump supporters. If enough people voted, Democrats would dominate in elections across the country. But again, this tangent isn’t relevant. We are talking about a specific group of people in historic swing states, that are threatening not to vote.
This sentence from your argument references me and not my argument. My thoughts have no bearing on this conversation. But since you asked, my argument is not particularly complicated as it relies on the fact we live in a two party system where Republicans win with low voter turn out. People threatening to not vote for Biden are supporting Trump. As I wrote before, it is your argument splitting hairs over the word support.
Only one of the states listed in there among the Democrats list of blue wall states went to trump, which is MI, but it was recognized as a battleground early in the election. Whether democrats thought this was a solid state is besides the point, polling showed that it was definitely one that could reasonably go either wau. Your own link kind of supports my point.
But they also don’t support trump. They don’t support either. So in this crazy math land, they actually support both candidates. Trying to make it a dichotomy, because our system tends towards two parties, doesn’t reflect reality.
Absolutely relevant because you are claiming that non action that helps trump win is support from trump, even with pretty explicit lack of support for trump. Repeating that “we don’t know for sure” it will help him win, thus it doesn’t count, is a double-edge sword for you because these people pulling their support for Biden might lead to other people to support him, thus it helps him. So we can’t know for certain this will hurt him, thus dismantling your own point too.
If you want to go on what we can reasonably believe to be true, then my point holds as well. You can’t have your cake and eat it too.
The fact that swing states are not static is irrelevant. We have a good idea what are going to be battleground states and which will not be in the upcoming election. People have been discussing Florida’s shift to the right for the past 2 decades. It’s not like it was a surprise it went to trump the last two elections.
Yes because they, explicitly, support neither candidate. Yet this is support for one candidate to you, because we live in a two party system.
No one thinks your argument is complicated, it’s just based on ridiculously thoughtless logic that is often, if not always, self contradictory. To accuse me of splitting hairs is the same “making it about me” that you are whining about here.
No, there were people that were lead to believe that these states were not swing states when they were in fact swing states. Thus countering your argument’s point that a person can be absolutely certain if their state is a swing state.
It does reflect reality. We live in a two party system. An argument that relies on denying this fact is not compelling.
We know for sure that low voter turn out helps Republicans and thus Trump. People not voting for Biden reduces the number of votes he will get. There is no measurable effect that demonstrates more people will vote for a candidate if other people say they won’t vote for them. This is baseless speculation.
Watch me.
This is the core part of what we are discussing. These voters are planning on not voting, in historic swing states. This will drive those states further to the right in the presidential election.
It’s math. If Trump gets more votes, because Biden got fewer votes, Trump wins. The people who withhold their votes from Biden will have supported Trump. Saying they don’t support Trump while actively helping him win doesn’t hold any water.
The reason my argument isn’t complicated is because it relies on facts and logic. Your arguments rests on dogging around the word support to conflate supporting Trump in the election with being a MAGA Trump supporter. I have been addressing your argument. These statements about my thoughts are directed at me. edit: typo
No we don’t know that for sure. We know it tends to be that way, but it’s not 100% certain. You just need it to be 100% certain because your point totally falls apart if it isn’t true. So, as you’ve proven throughout this debate, your logic only applies when it helps your point, but you recognize the ridiculousness of it when it contradicts your point.
We know as much as we can know anything, when it comes to elections, in regards to low voter turn benefiting Republicans. In 2016 Hillary Clinton lost because of low voter turnout in key swings states. In 2020 Biden won because of high voter turnout in key swing states. These people are planning on using that information to ensure low voter turnout in key, historic swings states in the 2024 election so Biden loses. Your argument ignores the premise of what we are discussing and the facts that are generally accepted to be true and thus is not compelling. My point is that by choosing to make Biden lose in a two party system, where we know low voter turn favors Republicans, they are supporting Trump. No amount of word play, off topic tangents, or ad hominem attacks, that your argument uses, will change that.
You have to be joking. This has to be a clever troll. By no stretch of the imagination am I ignoring the premise. My whole argument is using your logic in another case to demonstrate how bunk it is. Every attempt you make to dismiss this also dismisses your own argument. How you can call this “ignoring” it makes no sense. Additionally, I’ve ignored no facts. You just think your opinion is a fact, which it isn’t. You know what is among “the facts that are generally accepted”? That there are known swing states. You’re seeing your own faults in me, but I assure you they are yours and yours alone.
This post is a perfect example of what your argument includes. Your argument tries to apply my argument’s logic to a more general circumstance to demonstrate its incorrectness. I explain in my argument that my logic is correct more generally, I give examples, and explain that the more general cases are irrelevant when discussing the specific case. Then your argument attempts to use word play to make it seem my argument’s explanation for the more general case contradicts the more specific case when it does not.
You assert in your argument that my argument’s logic, in the general case, contradicts the logic for the specific case we are discussing. Your argument does this in order to make it appear it is building a case, but no where did your argument actually do so. All the while your argument never addresses the actual topic of discussion and simply dismisses the know facts. Your argument boils down to an attempt to pretend as if your argument demonstrated a flaw in my argument’s logic without actually having done so. Your argument is an exercise in theater, because your argument lacks anything of substance to refute my central point.
In this new post your argument opens with a series of ad hominem statements. Your argument then contains an explanation for what it is unsuccessfully trying to do. Another ad hominem statement is thrown into the mix. Then your argument misrepresents what my argument has stated in order to mislead.
We can know which states have historically been swing states, and I refer to such states as historic swing states. I make this distinction because a person can not know with absolute certainly if their historic non-swing state could become a swing state in the next election. That is to say more generally, given enough low voter turnout, any state will flip Republican because Republicans benefit from low voter turnout. This is especially true in historic swing states where we have every reason to believe the election will already be close. Thus the people threatening to make Biden lose by utilizing their knowledge of our voting system, to not vote in historic swing states, are supporting Trump.
Your argument has failed to refute my point in the more general case. My argument’s logic is consistent across the more specific and general cases, despite your argument’s assumption to the contrary. Since there is no contradiction, your argument simply pretends that there is, which isn’t particularly convincing. And the general case is not relevant to our discussion, because we are specifically referring to a group of people who are planning not to vote in historic swing states. Your argument has yet to touch on the specific case we are discussing, instead focusing solely on the unrelated general case. edit: typo
Again, this is what you are doing. You are the one trying to deny that we have strong confidence in what the swing states are, dismissing the application of your logic there because “we can’t be 100% certain” while at the same time arguing that because more people voting tends to help democrats, that is somehow 100% fact that them not voting is going to help Republicans. You hate your own logic.
Yes, and again, we “can not know with absolute certainly” that low turn out will help the republicans. It just tends to be that way. Hell, we “can not know with absolute certainly” that these people not voting will even lead to low voter turnout. It might even increase turn out.
And thus the people not moving to historic swing states to cast their vote there, are supporting Trump. It’s your logic, my man, not mine. Why the desire to reject your own point is beyond me.
Incorrect. In fact, it’s the exact opposite of reality. You knowing something “for certain” is only a requirement when it helps your point, when it contradicts your position, it is ignored. This is not consistent. Inadvertently likely helping Trump win via inaction is support for Trump when it supports your point, but not when it contradicts your position. This is not consistent. You claim that in a two party system, if you don’t support one candidate, you are supporting the other. When that means they are supporting Trump when they aren’t supporting Biden, it’s used. When it means they are supporting Biden because they don’t support Trump. . .well that doesn’t count. This is not consistent.
I’m the only one consistently applying your logic. You just hate it because your ego is too big to admit you’re just plain wrong.