Overall, registered voters say they favor Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden in next year’s presidential election by two percentage points, 46 percent to 44 percent. The president’s job approval rating has slid to 37 percent, down two points from July.
But there is considerable uncertainty over whether disaffected voters will even vote. While it is still early, the race is flipped among the likely electorate, with Mr. Biden leading by two percentage points.
Full poll at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/19/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html
Full poll archived at https://web.archive.org/web/20231219184128/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/19/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html
I always have suspicions when I see “do you approve or disapprove of how X is handling Y polls.” Disapproval might mean that the person wants X to move to the left or to the right, but they are both labeled as “disapprove.”
For example, say John wants Biden to withhold all aid to Israel until there’s a ceasefire. He would say he disapproves of Biden’s handling. But now say that Jim thinks the US should go in and bomb Gaza until nobody is left. He also disapproves of Biden’s actions.
The fact that more people sided with Israel (47%-20%), thought that Trump would do a better job (46%-38%), and watched FOX News (13% vs second place CNN at 10%)leads me to think that this poll got a lot more Republicans than Democrats. This likely just shows “Republicans aren’t going to support Biden” rather than “Democrats are fleeing Biden.”
Polls like this really need to include “do you want X to move more to the left or more to the right” in their disapproval questions. (Though likely phrased better than that.)