I’ve seen many comments and posts regarding the API fiasco on Reddit, with the claim that there will be a huge influx of users when that happens. I’m all for it, but I find it hard to believe that the average or even above average user will make the effort to switch.
I think it would be more like July 1st because that’s when the new API fees take effect. That change will affect anyone using a third-party mobile Reddit app, which is only a small percentage of Reddit users. But, Reddit has many millions of users so still a lot of people.
Some people may leave Reddit because they don’t want to use the official Reddit app, some may have already left because so many subreddits are in protest, some may leave out of principle. But it’s those using a third-party Reddit app that do not want to switch to the official app or reddit.com that will be most likely to come to Lemmy July 1st.