The report looked at “major,” “severe,” and “extreme” scenarios. The authors found that the “major” case would cost the world $3 trillion over a five-year period, which they estimated has a 2.3% chance of happening per year. Over a 30-year period, those odds equate to about a 50% probability of occurrence — assuming the risks are not increasing each year, which they are.
Yeah, I guess that’s what happened to me. I learned to fish in the high Sierra Nevadas, and I’m still pretty good up there. But those techniques don’t seem to work in the PNW.
The best fisherman I know says to walk until you can smell the fish. That always seemed nonsensical to me, and I assumed he was trolling me. But last year I was walking along the water’s edge and actually smelled fish! So I think he was being truthful. I’ll definitely give that a try this spring.
I’ve stopped to fish where I can smell fish and been successful, but I always just assumed confirmation bias or pattern seeking was happening. Maybe I’ll have to pay more attention!