(Very basic) Tldr; The hot models are excluded because they do not match historical data, because we don’t have historical data on clouds and these models are based on properties of clouds. However some scientists recently compared these models to current clouds to see if they could accurately predict changes in weather, and they could. Suggesting that the models may be closer to accurate than previously believed.
Yeah, there’s an issue with the latest round of models, where there are two very different estimates of sensitivity coming out of them, and a lot of distrust of the ones which predict a substantial loss of cloud cover at some latitudes. It’s not impossible, but very far from a consensus viewpoint as yet.
Huh, this interesting video about these “hot models” was posted earlier around lemmy.
https://youtu.be/4S9sDyooxf4
(Very basic) Tldr; The hot models are excluded because they do not match historical data, because we don’t have historical data on clouds and these models are based on properties of clouds. However some scientists recently compared these models to current clouds to see if they could accurately predict changes in weather, and they could. Suggesting that the models may be closer to accurate than previously believed.
Yeah, there’s an issue with the latest round of models, where there are two very different estimates of sensitivity coming out of them, and a lot of distrust of the ones which predict a substantial loss of cloud cover at some latitudes. It’s not impossible, but very far from a consensus viewpoint as yet.