Killings won’t go any higher after a peace treaty than they would without one. Either the war goes on and Russians keep killing civilians in occupied territory, or Russians keep killing civilians in conquered territory. I’d even water that killings of civilians would decrease if the war ended.
Option 1: keep fighting a war your losing, thus losing more soldiers, weapons, supplies, and civilians.
Option 2: accept your losses and live to fight again another day.
Option 3: Grind Russia down to a halt, then throw them out of the country.
If you think that this war can’t be won you haven’t talked to Ukrainians. Also, do have a look at the loss statistics Russia vs. Ukraine. Even Russia can’t keep up this level of attrition, least of all in an offensive war.
That might be possible if they could maintain their momentum, but they clearly haven’t and cannot. This is not a war of power or superiority or willpower, it’s simply a matter of resources. Even though Russia has lost much more, they also have much more to lose.
First off, even if the west stopped supporting Ukraine tomorrow they’d fight on: With Molotov cocktails, as they did in the beginning. (Also it’d be practically impossible to stop the Poles from putting boots on the ground in that situation, different topic).
Secondly, resources is exactly why we’re supporting Ukraine. “They’d lose if we stop therefore we have to stop” is not really a good argument if you ask me.
And Russia doesn’t have that much more to lose while Ukraine is starting to strike deep into Russia breaking their backbone. Can’t circumvent oil sanctions if you have no ports to fill up ships with. The Russians can buy North Korean artillery with missile tech blueprints but China’s “friendship” only goes so far as Russia’s chequebook: No money, no silicon. Ukraine’s support backbone, meanwhile, is located deep within NATO territory.
And WTF is “maintain their momentum” supposed to mean. This isn’t a 400m race, or a game of CSGO. There’s ebbs and floods in every war as the sides manoeuvre and adapt.
It must be really cool to see the world as an action movie. Unfortunately, here in the real world, things don’t always play out where the good guys win through hard work and perseverance.
This is a very simple concept: big army with lots of troops and supplies needs to hold ground behind big ass river. Smaller army with less supplies needs to advance across big ass river. Not exactly a good scenario. Momentum is important in this situation because without it, the enemy builds defenses like trenches along the river. That momentum has already been lost.
As for the Ukrainians fighting on forever, Poland getting involved, and China abandoning Russia; this is entirely speculation based on your personal vibes. None of the factual ground evidence supports any of it.
This is a very simple concept: big army with lots of troops and supplies needs to hold ground behind big ass river
No. To fulfil their war goals Russia needs to move to the oblast borders, also over that river, just to gain control over territory they already claim to be legally part of the Russian Federation. They’re not doing that. They have, in your words, no momentum. What they do have is getting attritted.
As for the Ukrainians fighting on forever, Poland getting involved, and China abandoning Russia; this is entirely speculation based on your personal vibes. None of the factual ground evidence supports any of it.
If Russia was intended to continue advancing, they wouldn’t have dug trenches. They’re playing the long game. They knew the US would abandon Ukraine at the first opportunity and we did. This is just as much a proxy war with the West as it is a war with Ukraine. It’s within the US’s best interest to keep the war going on as long as possible so as soon as Ukraine started making gains we decided to pull back on the reigns.
War goals don’t need to be achieved for Russia to declare victory. Putin would surely spin it as him being a kind leader that’s willing to accept peace over war goals. But the real war goals have already been achieved anyways.
Polls = most accurate representation of real world scenarios that never differ from what actually happens…oh wait.
If Russia was intended to continue advancing, they wouldn’t have dug trenches.
How to tell me you have no idea about strategy without telling me you don’t have any idea about strategy.
Ukraine, too, is digging trenches. Now what, are you claiming Ukraine doesn’t want to regain its territory?
proxy war
Oh, indeed, some truth at least: Yes this is a proxy war between South and North Korea. South Korea’s proxy is Ukraine, the EU and US (and a couple others), while North Korea’s proxy is Russia.
See, both sides to a conflict need to be proxies for something to be a proxy war.
It’s within the US’s best interest to keep the war going on as long as possible
First off, no it isn’t. Secondly, that’s not European strategy. Thirdly, if that’s US government strategy you should call your representatives and tell them to deliver weapons ASAP so that Russia can be thrown out of Ukraine quicker.
War goals don’t need to be achieved for Russia to declare victory.
Indeed, Russia could withdraw and Putin could still declare victory. That’s not what he’s doing, though: He legally annexed the whole of even Kherson and Zaporizha Oblast, I think even Odessa (broadly speaking: The whole Black Sea coast) and any “peace offer” heard from Russia includes Ukraine giving up those territories which Russia doesn’t even hold.
You want ten thousand Buchas? Because that’s how you get ten thousand Buchas.
Killings won’t go any higher after a peace treaty than they would without one. Either the war goes on and Russians keep killing civilians in occupied territory, or Russians keep killing civilians in conquered territory. I’d even water that killings of civilians would decrease if the war ended.
Option 1: keep fighting a war your losing, thus losing more soldiers, weapons, supplies, and civilians. Option 2: accept your losses and live to fight again another day.
Option 3: Grind Russia down to a halt, then throw them out of the country.
If you think that this war can’t be won you haven’t talked to Ukrainians. Also, do have a look at the loss statistics Russia vs. Ukraine. Even Russia can’t keep up this level of attrition, least of all in an offensive war.
That might be possible if they could maintain their momentum, but they clearly haven’t and cannot. This is not a war of power or superiority or willpower, it’s simply a matter of resources. Even though Russia has lost much more, they also have much more to lose.
First off, even if the west stopped supporting Ukraine tomorrow they’d fight on: With Molotov cocktails, as they did in the beginning. (Also it’d be practically impossible to stop the Poles from putting boots on the ground in that situation, different topic).
Secondly, resources is exactly why we’re supporting Ukraine. “They’d lose if we stop therefore we have to stop” is not really a good argument if you ask me.
And Russia doesn’t have that much more to lose while Ukraine is starting to strike deep into Russia breaking their backbone. Can’t circumvent oil sanctions if you have no ports to fill up ships with. The Russians can buy North Korean artillery with missile tech blueprints but China’s “friendship” only goes so far as Russia’s chequebook: No money, no silicon. Ukraine’s support backbone, meanwhile, is located deep within NATO territory.
And WTF is “maintain their momentum” supposed to mean. This isn’t a 400m race, or a game of CSGO. There’s ebbs and floods in every war as the sides manoeuvre and adapt.
It must be really cool to see the world as an action movie. Unfortunately, here in the real world, things don’t always play out where the good guys win through hard work and perseverance.
This is a very simple concept: big army with lots of troops and supplies needs to hold ground behind big ass river. Smaller army with less supplies needs to advance across big ass river. Not exactly a good scenario. Momentum is important in this situation because without it, the enemy builds defenses like trenches along the river. That momentum has already been lost.
As for the Ukrainians fighting on forever, Poland getting involved, and China abandoning Russia; this is entirely speculation based on your personal vibes. None of the factual ground evidence supports any of it.
No. To fulfil their war goals Russia needs to move to the oblast borders, also over that river, just to gain control over territory they already claim to be legally part of the Russian Federation. They’re not doing that. They have, in your words, no momentum. What they do have is getting attritted.
Read the polls.
If Russia was intended to continue advancing, they wouldn’t have dug trenches. They’re playing the long game. They knew the US would abandon Ukraine at the first opportunity and we did. This is just as much a proxy war with the West as it is a war with Ukraine. It’s within the US’s best interest to keep the war going on as long as possible so as soon as Ukraine started making gains we decided to pull back on the reigns.
War goals don’t need to be achieved for Russia to declare victory. Putin would surely spin it as him being a kind leader that’s willing to accept peace over war goals. But the real war goals have already been achieved anyways.
Polls = most accurate representation of real world scenarios that never differ from what actually happens…oh wait.
How to tell me you have no idea about strategy without telling me you don’t have any idea about strategy.
Ukraine, too, is digging trenches. Now what, are you claiming Ukraine doesn’t want to regain its territory?
Oh, indeed, some truth at least: Yes this is a proxy war between South and North Korea. South Korea’s proxy is Ukraine, the EU and US (and a couple others), while North Korea’s proxy is Russia.
See, both sides to a conflict need to be proxies for something to be a proxy war.
First off, no it isn’t. Secondly, that’s not European strategy. Thirdly, if that’s US government strategy you should call your representatives and tell them to deliver weapons ASAP so that Russia can be thrown out of Ukraine quicker.
Indeed, Russia could withdraw and Putin could still declare victory. That’s not what he’s doing, though: He legally annexed the whole of even Kherson and Zaporizha Oblast, I think even Odessa (broadly speaking: The whole Black Sea coast) and any “peace offer” heard from Russia includes Ukraine giving up those territories which Russia doesn’t even hold.