• partial_accumen
    link
    1411 months ago

    If Russia’s asking for a ceasefire it means they don’t believe they can get any further, and have a chance of losing territory.

    Well, not at this second. They want to consolidate their gains, regroup and rearm, and in a few years press the attack again for more territory.

    We’ve already seen this once, in Ukraine. Take Crimea, sue for peace. Regroup, rearm. “Little Green Men” in Donetsk and Luhansk, sue for peace. Regroup, rearm. Press on for Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Kyiv. Except that last push didn’t go so well so we’re back to the “sue for peace” step.

    Moskovites are have demonstrated they are untrustworthy in agreements with Ukraine. This is even ignoring the entire Budapest Memorandum.