As US allies reel from Donald Trump’s weekend comments encouraging Russia to attack European allies if they don’t meet NATO budget contribution goals, multiple former Trump advisers warn in my upcoming book that the former president will seek to formally withdraw the US from the NATO alliance if he wins a second term.
That said, that can backfire. Several major member states of the EU are already talking about proper remilitarization that wasn’t needed since the wall fell. There are nascent beginnings of a joint European army and a joint European MIC. Why would EU states spend more money on US stuff that it already thinks it doesn’t need, if it can just use the same money and pour it into the FCAS project for example, creating jobs and keeping money at home?
Orbán used to be a huge Trump fan, and he actually went and started spending more money on the military when the was Trump’s thing. Only it wasn’t American F-35s he got, it was a bunch of German Leopard 2A8 tanks and French Eurocopter EC725 helicopters and Norwegian NASAMS launchers. There is also a stated intent to skip 5th gen and get into the FCAS if and when that materializes.
Oh definitely. US military technology is exhaustively oversold and carry enormous overhead costs that dilute their real practical military capacity. Our new war in Yemen (much like our old war in Afghanistan) illustrate the problem neatly, as we launch $10M missiles at $100 targets and still can’t get the Gulf of Adan safe enough for traffic to resume.
Why would EU states spend more money on US stuff that it already thinks it doesn’t need
Because they’re buying a relationship with the US Military more than they are buying the hardware itself. The promise of US Aircraft Carriers and US Satellites and experienced US military leadership coming in as the primary driver of military engagement means kicking back a billion or two to keep the Americans friendly is mostly worth it.
But if the EU grows more internally coherent as a military power… yeah, that could very easily go away. We could be staring at another Great Rival in an increasingly fractured global rat race if the Europeans establish themselves as self-reliant.
That said, that can backfire. Several major member states of the EU are already talking about proper remilitarization that wasn’t needed since the wall fell. There are nascent beginnings of a joint European army and a joint European MIC. Why would EU states spend more money on US stuff that it already thinks it doesn’t need, if it can just use the same money and pour it into the FCAS project for example, creating jobs and keeping money at home?
Orbán used to be a huge Trump fan, and he actually went and started spending more money on the military when the was Trump’s thing. Only it wasn’t American F-35s he got, it was a bunch of German Leopard 2A8 tanks and French Eurocopter EC725 helicopters and Norwegian NASAMS launchers. There is also a stated intent to skip 5th gen and get into the FCAS if and when that materializes.
Oh definitely. US military technology is exhaustively oversold and carry enormous overhead costs that dilute their real practical military capacity. Our new war in Yemen (much like our old war in Afghanistan) illustrate the problem neatly, as we launch $10M missiles at $100 targets and still can’t get the Gulf of Adan safe enough for traffic to resume.
Because they’re buying a relationship with the US Military more than they are buying the hardware itself. The promise of US Aircraft Carriers and US Satellites and experienced US military leadership coming in as the primary driver of military engagement means kicking back a billion or two to keep the Americans friendly is mostly worth it.
But if the EU grows more internally coherent as a military power… yeah, that could very easily go away. We could be staring at another Great Rival in an increasingly fractured global rat race if the Europeans establish themselves as self-reliant.