Cross-posted from: https://feddit.de/post/10013170
The war in Ukraine is “existential for our Europe and for France”, Mr Macron said in the interview on France 2 and TF1.
“Do you think that the Poles, the Lithuanians, the Estonians, the Romanians and the Bulgarians could remain at peace for a second [in the event of a Russian victory in Ukraine]?” he asked. “If Russia wins this war, Europe’s credibility would be reduced to zero.”
Can somebody explain how not admitting Ukraine to NATO and ceding Crimea and the Donbas means “the end of Europe”? The alternative seems to be endless bloodshed and the complete destruction of the country.
If Russia wins, the next country that will experience what Ukraine is experiencing is Moldova and Taiwan. Then maybe Georgia and the Baltics.
It would be the end of the period of relative peace since the end of the Cold War in Europe.
Do you think you may be wrong about your prediction?
Not really, as it is not really a prediction. Moldova is already actively being threatened, as well as Taiwan. It’s not me predicting this, this is the official policy of Russia and China. China is also quite obviously looking at Ukraine as a model for a prospective invasion of Taiwan. The fact that they didn’t launch the invasion yet offers some hope that they don’t trust Russia to win, else they would have already started an invasion using Ukraine as cover.
From 1990-ish up till the last few years, most of Europe could live in a world where there was no credible way a nuclear ICBM would ever fall on their homes. That has changed sadly, and it is enough for me to feel that we’re in a new Cold War.
Appeasement won’t stop it. Is that what you’re advocating?
Russia has had control of Crimea for a decade now. They won’t care if we don’t recognise it as a part of Russia, from their point of view they don’t need our permission. By the time Ukraine gets Crimea back, if that ever happens, it will have been Russified for many years.
Might as well be appeasing Russia, because the wests policy of dripfeed weapons to Ukraine and hope for a collapse in Russia at some unknown point in the future has proved to be toothless so far.
Personally I have zero faith that Ukraine will ever get it’s territory back as long as this status quo continues. Either we grow some balls and do something about it or concede to Russia.