Tehran views the attack as equivalent to an attack on its own territory, so a direct response on Israeli soil by Iran itself is a serious possibility
Countries including India, France, Poland and Russia have warned their citizens against travel to the region, already on edge over the war in Gaza ⠀
“The revenge will come,” wrote Israel’s largest daily newspaper, Yedioth Ahronoth. “For the moment, the premise is that it will be very soon, in the next few days.” ⠀
“It’s going to be very difficult for Iran not to retaliate,” said Raz Zimmt, senior researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies.
“I still believe that Iran doesn’t want to engage in full-scale, direct military confrontation against Israel, and certainly not with the United States. But it has to do something.” ⠀
Iranian sources and diplomats from the United States, Israel’s main protector, say Tehran has signalled to Washington that it wishes to avoid escalation and will not act hastily.
But the risk remains that any response might spin out of control. ⠀
Iran has missiles capable of hitting Israel directly and in recent weeks, Israel has bolstered its air defences, which have intercepted thousands of rockets fired by Hamas from Gaza and by Hezbollah from Lebanon.
the provocation was deliberate
they can position themselves as threatened/defending themselves (no reasonable person thinks Gaza poses an existential threat to Israel)
they can draw the US into defending them
this will dampen/limit US backlash against the Gaza genocide
Netanyahu needs the war to go on because it helps him stay in power and away from being prosecuted, US entry could achieve that
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I don’t think they need a full war, just enough skirmishing to take up all the oxygen. Kind of like how international attention went off Afghanistan when the US invaded Iraq.
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On the other hand Iran is not very stable politically and a war can be the last straw and I think their political elite thinks very carefully how to retaliate, like showing the world they aren’t weak and at the same time not triggering more global war.
This doesn’t change the fact that Israel’s action was absolutely reckless and irresponsible, even towards their own population.
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And in a way it feels that we are on the verge of another world war and I really hope I am wrong about that.