I think a lot of Trump’s support is imaginary. We’ve had several elections, including the 2022 election, where the polls said we were going to get destroyed, but the Republicans way underperformed their polls. Perhaps it’s over-correction for 2016 when the polls overstated Democratic Party chances. Perhaps they’re over-sampling Republicans, not accounting for the fact that many older, more Republican-leaning people who distrusted the science behind COVID got themselves sick with COVID and then died from it. Or maybe they’re just making wild-ass guesses and don’t have a fucking clue because asking 1000 people what 220 million people are going to do six months away is always a tough thing to do.
That said, I’d still campaign like I was 5 points down in the polls if I was Biden, going 50 State Strategy to get ALL the votes he can, even the ones that ‘don’t count’, and if I was a voter that’s even REMOTELY aligned to the Left, I’d VOTE like he was down 1 point in the polls, and make damn sure I got my vote in for him. The alternative is just that much worse.
I think a lot of Trump’s support is imaginary. We’ve had several elections, including the 2022 election, where the polls said we were going to get destroyed, but the Republicans way underperformed their polls. Perhaps it’s over-correction for 2016 when the polls overstated Democratic Party chances. Perhaps they’re over-sampling Republicans, not accounting for the fact that many older, more Republican-leaning people who distrusted the science behind COVID got themselves sick with COVID and then died from it. Or maybe they’re just making wild-ass guesses and don’t have a fucking clue because asking 1000 people what 220 million people are going to do six months away is always a tough thing to do.
That said, I’d still campaign like I was 5 points down in the polls if I was Biden, going 50 State Strategy to get ALL the votes he can, even the ones that ‘don’t count’, and if I was a voter that’s even REMOTELY aligned to the Left, I’d VOTE like he was down 1 point in the polls, and make damn sure I got my vote in for him. The alternative is just that much worse.