See my reply to your other reply. That the programs are all limited in scope and duration and thus cannot possibly speak to scale. The meta analysis says the data that is available is appealing, but acknowledges that almost none of them really hit the criteria for a real UBI in terms of scope, scale, and duration. Particularly:
Only a handful of the interventions covered
by this review are truly unconditional and
universal. In an exhaustive review, Gentilini
and colleagues21 identify only a small
number of schemes that reach everyone
within a geographic region without meansbased or demographic targeting, and
regardless of work history. These included
national schemes in Mongolia and Iran,
dividend transfers in Alaska and the Eastern
Band of the Cherokee Nation, a one-off
transfer to all citizens in Kuwait, and pilots
financed by private contributions and
the non-governmental organizations in
Kenya and Namibia, and by the national
government in India. Several of these
programs are either short-term, or not set to
a level that would meet basic needs
I don’t know that any of them manage to hit both long-term and enough to meet basic needs. Alaska is long term, but it’s well below basic needs, for example.
We still do not have data that would speak to a whole society with UBI.
It seems like we’re in a Catch 22 scenario. Models and experiments only give so much information by the very nature of models and experiments simplifying much more complex problems, and in order to collect the kind of holistic data that would speak to a societal level would require an experiment that is functionally identical to just full implementation. Like experiments can only get so big or go on so long before it just becomes the actual thing itself and is no longer an experiment.
And in regards to your other comment about dialing in from the extremes, instead of making everything a uniform number, we can use an formula and a handful of variables to arrive at a local number. A function that takes in common cost of living costs, such as food, shelter, clothing, utilities, transport, and generates a number that will adequate cover those expenses for a given area plus some extra because something unexpect can always happen.
With respect to formula, one aspect that proves difficult is that as you derive the right number, the right number changes. Since currency is kind of a synthetic mathematical trick we play on ourselves to “do economy”, the things being modeled change when we try to force the numbers to be pleasant. Psychology plays a role to potentially make people feel better even with objectively similar circumstances (eg getting a 2% raise along with 2% inflation the person feels like they made some progress despite sitting still.
In any event, I don’t have data either, but I just strongly suspect a numerical manipulation of money balances won’t suffice and we will have to intervene with things like universal healthcare, housing initiatives, labor regulation, and some means of mitigating the phenomenon of billionaires. Easier said than done, but broadly just thinking we have to mind the details explicitly.
See my reply to your other reply. That the programs are all limited in scope and duration and thus cannot possibly speak to scale. The meta analysis says the data that is available is appealing, but acknowledges that almost none of them really hit the criteria for a real UBI in terms of scope, scale, and duration. Particularly:
I don’t know that any of them manage to hit both long-term and enough to meet basic needs. Alaska is long term, but it’s well below basic needs, for example.
We still do not have data that would speak to a whole society with UBI.
It seems like we’re in a Catch 22 scenario. Models and experiments only give so much information by the very nature of models and experiments simplifying much more complex problems, and in order to collect the kind of holistic data that would speak to a societal level would require an experiment that is functionally identical to just full implementation. Like experiments can only get so big or go on so long before it just becomes the actual thing itself and is no longer an experiment.
And in regards to your other comment about dialing in from the extremes, instead of making everything a uniform number, we can use an formula and a handful of variables to arrive at a local number. A function that takes in common cost of living costs, such as food, shelter, clothing, utilities, transport, and generates a number that will adequate cover those expenses for a given area plus some extra because something unexpect can always happen.
With respect to formula, one aspect that proves difficult is that as you derive the right number, the right number changes. Since currency is kind of a synthetic mathematical trick we play on ourselves to “do economy”, the things being modeled change when we try to force the numbers to be pleasant. Psychology plays a role to potentially make people feel better even with objectively similar circumstances (eg getting a 2% raise along with 2% inflation the person feels like they made some progress despite sitting still.
In any event, I don’t have data either, but I just strongly suspect a numerical manipulation of money balances won’t suffice and we will have to intervene with things like universal healthcare, housing initiatives, labor regulation, and some means of mitigating the phenomenon of billionaires. Easier said than done, but broadly just thinking we have to mind the details explicitly.