Half the world is going to find themselves with new governments next year.

I expect the far right to have a pretty good time in the European Parliament elections. Sadly fascism and nationalism have had a massive resurgence in recent years, almost as if WW2 had never happened (although some historians have observed that current circumstances more resemble 1914). Since the European Parliament doesn’t have a massive impact on how the EU (let alone its constituent countries) operates,

it’s going to be more a question of whether they can significantly out-perform other parties. I also expect the far left to do reasonably well.

Iran will be interesting to watch, not because the result is in doubt, but because the anti-authority protests have not stopped (even if the media no longer considers them newsworthy). There’s likely to be an escalation of tension there.

One can only hope the DPP prevails in Taiwan, although it’s an open question whether that will be good for maintaining the current uneasy balance of peace in the region. I can’t help thinking the Kuomintang would be worse news for the Taiwanese people.

Nothing much is going to change in India, but God knows what’s going to happen in Pakistan. I assume the ANC will hold on in South Africa, but the scale of the opposition will be very interesting to watch.

Outside of the US there’s not much to be alarmed about, Trump is pretty much the only contender whose victory might have a significantly negative impact on world affairs (arguably Taiwan might also have an impact). It’s a given that Putin will win again, so the status quo will remain.

Ukraine, I believe the presidential election will take place in March, and it’s not yet clear if Zelenskyy will seek a second term.

This is the best summary I could come up with:

WASHINGTON (AP) — In this time of war overseas, more Americans think foreign policy should be a top focus for the U.S. government in 2024, with a new poll showing international concerns and immigration rising in importance with the public.

About 4 in 10 U.S. adults named foreign policy topics in an open-ended question that asked people to share up to five issues for the government to work on in the next year, according to a December poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

The politics of foreign military aid and immigration policy are entangled, with President Joe Biden ‘s administration promoting a $110 billion package that includes aid for Ukraine and Israel that remains stalled in Congress while Republicans push for a deal allowing major changes in immigration policy and stricter enforcement along the U.S.-Mexico border.

Inflation has fallen, unemployment is low and the U.S. has repeatedly defied predictions of a recession — yet this poll adds to a string of them showing a gloomy outlook on the economy.

Just 5% of U.S. adults are “extremely” or “very” confident that the federal government can make progress on the important problems and issues facing the country in 2024, with 7% of Democrats and 11% of independents being optimistic, compared with 1% of Republicans.

Brown is a Democrat but said he was disillusioned enough to perhaps sit out the presidential election — especially if it proves to be a 2020 rematch between Biden and former President Donald Trump, who has built a commanding early lead in the 2024 Republican primary.

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