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If this were to come to pass, it would be a massive hit to the middle class. Truckers make up a HUGE part of the American middle class work force.
Also consider the economic impact to all of the gas stations and rest stops created primarily to service them, a huge amount of infrastructure exists to service truckers. That said, many could convert for autonomous service needs? I expect it to be a net loss for them also. RIP Loves?
And from a technical point of view, it’s a lesser challenge than generalized self-driving because point A and B are already known for each route, so more of the route could be “hardcoded” (not actually hardcoded but I think you get the concept).
That said, I can’t predict the timeline of when this would be feasible, but when it happens I expect it will cause a lot of anger from truckers.
Anyway, the jist of my comment, this will route a substantial amount of middle class wages from the truckers to the truck owners, increasing inequality even further.
This is the biggest catalyst to sway the public toward a UBI than anything else I can imagine.
Hmm, they do have a union. It wouldn’t surprise me if they push to put some rules in place about requiring a driver in the cab for safety.
Which wouldn’t even be a stretch, really. Heavy loads are dangerous, and I don’t think people have a lot of faith in autonomous vehicles right now.
Kinda like how planes are 95% automated these days, but we still keep two highly skilled and well paid pilots in board in case of emergency.
Planes carry passengers though, not cargo… although you could technically fly a pilotless cargo plane… eh, better not, forget you read that.
I once lived in a town that if you want to be an uber driver you also legally needed to be a current taxi driver. Kinda completely missed the point. Though I did like how the taxi drivers couldn’t screw me.
I hated that town though.
But on the flip side, you also have to consider how much cheaper, well, literally everything, will be when it doesn’t cost $30 an hour to move a product from one place to another?
Everything will cost so much less that Universal Basic Income wouldn’t need to be anywhere near as high as it is right now to be “living wage”.
Like it or not - self driving trucks are coming. We need to find a way to adjust to that. The timeline for when is probably not “when will the tech be ready” but rather “when will society be ready”. I’m pretty sure if you deployed self driving trucks today, pitchforks would come out and those trucks would be blocked by civil disobedience.
Slow it down too much though, and you’ll put your whole economy at a global disadvantage. A first would country could easily become a third world one by refusing to allow autonomous trucks. Autonomous trucks already exist and not just on pristine highways — for example they’re used on mine sites with no roads at all — https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/bhp-autonomous-trucks-collide-at-jimblebar-iron-ore-mine-in-pilbara-ng-b881139676z
Nothing will be cheaper. It’ll go to profits.
Everything will cost so much less that Universal Basic Income wouldn’t need to be anywhere near as high as it is right now to be “living wage”.
Assuming companies would pass the saving to their customers, which is usually not the case these days.
Remember when prices went down when self checkout became a thing everywhere?
I dont.
Oh you sweet summer child. There is zero chance that the cost savings will be passed on to consumers. In fact, I’ll bet prices go up after an initial plateau.
At first, profits will rise due to the lack of $30/hr costs - and shareholders will celebrate the innovation.
Then when the migration to self-driving semis is complete and that profit levels out, shareholders will be pissed that the profits don’t continue to rise - so prices will rise again.
But on the flip side, you also have to consider how much cheaper, well, literally everything, will be
No, it is not true. Trucks are big. In total, transportation is dead cheap.
When has the price of anything ever come down?
I’ve been around for quite some time now, and I’ve seen things get pretty damn advanced, but not once have I EVER seen the prices of something go down.
It doesn’t cost much to have a driver as compared to the value amd volume of product. The expense is the fuel.
Those mining trucks don’t have to deal with Altimas.
But of course! Trickle down economy at work! /s
point A and B are already known for each route, so more of the route could be “hardcoded”
yeah, and it is all good until there is any kind of non-standard situation on that road.
luckily for truckers, i think that truly self-driving cars are further into the future than their proponents would like you to believe.
I’m betting garbage trucks actually end up being first. A half dozen trucks per human monitor sitting back at the station, with two guys in a pickup to run out to any problems.
i would guess these would be last. the garbage cans are not on the highway, they are in potentially hard accessible places, where some maneuvering and judgement may be required.
I read somewhere that the largest class of jobs in half the US states was truck driver and it’s high in most other places (that article says 600k). They are likely to be the first sector almost wiped out by AI, followed by call centre workers and a lot of the legal profession. Good luck reskilling all those people. Here in the UK, call centres were often opened in areas of low employment, so we’ll see a lot of the already decimated old industrial areas hollowed out.
Yeah, but think of the amount of damage that happens due to accidents where trucks are involved. If that can be substantially reduced it would be a huge win. We’re talking about thousands of lives saved each year.
Spoiler: It’s not near
PS: lets try everything but trains huh
What is PD?
A badly written “PS”, sorry 😂
Production, most likely
“If you’re driving a truck today,” he said, “my expectation is you’re going to be able to retire driving a truck.”
Probably true as it will take a while for them to ramp the numbers up to cover the shortage in truck drivers, and they’ll still need drivers for that last mile (as these trucks work best going between depots on freeways) but how long will being a truck driver be a viable occupation? When it’s one of the biggest areas of employment, can everyone transition to other logistical jobs, as suggested by the article?
Have you heard of “pedestrian controlled” trucks? They’re increasingly common. Here’s one being used to move an airplane cargo container:
They’re usually small but these days some carry 15 tons and you just grab them by a handle and start walking. Often there’s a lifting function (to load cargo onto/off of tall shelves/etc).
You’re not always limited to walking speed, some of them have a platform the operator can stand on to increase the speed.
I could totally see those increasing in size, to the size of a full size shipping container maybe, and having a wireless control system instead of needing to stand right next to it (which could be dangerous). It’d have sensors prevent the operator from running into anything and the control would just be a pair of joysticks. Outside of the loading dock of a building, they’d be able to drive autonomously.
The job of “driver” would be replaced by just a team of people who load / unload the cargo and plan/supervise the truck. And I don’t think it’s far away at all - we’re already seeing it with smaller cargo loads (is 15 ton all that small?).
Have you heard of “pedestrian controlled” trucks
they are called forklifts and they are around for quite some time now 😆
Just ask Klause.
oh my. the… motorized pedestrian truck driver klaus. haven’t seen this gem in some time.
Here is an alternative Piped link(s):
https://www.piped.video/watch?v=ChOHnSL7ZCg
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
I’m open-source; check me out at GitHub.
The first time I saw a version of this article was the summer of 1993.
Can’t wait to see these driverless trucks on an icy highway during a blinding snowstorm where a massive pile-up of vehicles has already occurred. /s
Don’t forget 70mph winds blowing across the highway in the Plains states too.
I’ve heard this so many times… It’s now like the cure for cancer we find every 6 months
Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure we are making progress but I’m tired of “just around the corner” meaning 15 years down the road.
We don’t yet have fully self driving trains, on tracks, I can’t believe trucks will be first
On your last point, we do. The Unions just push against them due to jobs being lost.
Capitalists will profit not just from destroying the planet but also from murdering individuals along the way.
Just build trains.
This is a terrible idea.
I too have a bridge to sell you. You know it’s great because I’ve successfully sold the same one a thousand times for the past decade already!
what happens when theres an emergency or a crash?
Until roadways are incredibly safe and cars are far more reliable it doesn’t make sense to allow driverless cars on the road. sure, right now these trucks are new and people are worried about selling more. But as soon as this is allowed the race to the bottom begins and you have a company operating a fleet of unmaintained driverless trucks.
Or a cop wants to pull it over to inspect contents? A truck with no driver isn’t going to be able to unlock the trailer and participate in that.
How many people does Tesla’s “auto Pilot” needs to kill before tech bros realize hasting this isn’t gonna work?
You could only really have automated trucks if the roads used were prepared for that - and even then you’d have issues with edge-cases.
Trains anyone?
sounds like the movie Swordfish.
“how many innocent victims splattered across the wall does it take”
Seriously, why aren’t we just using rail?
Will they use this new battery tech I heard about?
