Title is hyperbole. Essentially the answer is maybe but most likely not. Has a discussion about potential poll error in the context of precision vs. accuracy. Notes that the model assumes accuracy but not precision.

  • mozz
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    143 months ago

    TL;DR Here’s how my model works model model model anyway you gotta subscribe to hear the answer.

    • abff08f4813c
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      123 months ago

      For what it’s worth, the first sentence after the subscriber paywall is this,

      My short answer is “no”. Indeed, if I thought polling was predicatbly biased, I’d have built that into the model somehow.