A couple of keys:

“In some states women are actually exceeding their vote share from 2020, which is at this point shocking to me,” said Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and CEO of the data firm TargetSmart. “I never would have bet on that.”

And…

It’s also not clear that the increased turnout among women is uniformly beneficial for Democrats, given the significant numbers of Republican women who are showing up to early vote as well.

“We are seeing an increase in Republicans of all types, gender — men and women — voting. It’s just that women are still ahead and keeping pace,” said Michael McDonald, a professor at the University of Florida who tracks early voting data as part of his United States Election Project.

“We’re confident we’re going to win, and it’s not because we’re running away with it,” Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon told reporters Tuesday.

Argggggh! Whatever your personal predictions are, do not say you’re confident you’re going to win. That’s a great way to get marginal voters who might have not wanted to vote for Harris but thought it was necessary to stop Trump to reevaluate the choice. You can add all kinds of descriptors about how it’s a close race and need to push hard to the very end, but if you say you’re confident you’re going to win, that’s the part that people (and gossipy reporters) are going to take from it.

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