- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
- [email protected]
- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
- [email protected]
New online accounts on Polymarket platform betting a total of $70,000 suggest ‘some degree of inside info’
Several accounts on the online platform Polymarket laid bets on a US-Iran ceasefire over the weekend that appeared to show signs of insider knowledge, according to experts.
Eight accounts, all newly created around 21 March, bet a total of nearly $70,000 (£52,000) on there being a ceasefire. They stand to make nearly $820,000 if such a deal is reached before 31 March.
An account that made the same bet was created shortly before the US struck Iran on 28 February. It also placed a winning bet on those strikes, which raised similar questions around insider trading, and so far has bet on nothing else.
The new accounts all appear to have been created late last week, around the time when the US president, Donald Trump, appeared to first double down on war with Iran, then suggest in an after-markets Truth Social post that he was considering “winding down” military operations.
You must log in or # to comment.
Wait, you mean the proudly corrupt conservative government is being corrupt on a betting platform while callously playing with the lives of the American soldiers they have so much contempt for?
Im shocked, shocked I tell you
Well…not that shocked actually.
I’m curious as to how tf Polymarket determine if there’s a ceasefire.
Is it “Trump said there’s one so thus there is one”?
Iran’s foreign minister literally just said there’s been zero dialogue between the US and Iran, and Iran can’t trust any US deal because they’ve been broken EVERY SINGLE FUCKING TIME. And there’s no way Iran is gonna give its attackers time to reload when Iran has the advantage.
I take this as a far more worrying sign that these assholes are insiders and are so insanely fucking stupid that they genuinely believe they’re winning.
spoiler
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
This is exactly as designed. The whole point of a prediction market is to encourage people who are knowledgeable about a subject to expose that knowledge in the form of bets. We should want people with inside information to be doing this to make the predictions more accurate.
If you don’t have inside information or special knowledge then you probably shouldn’t be gambling like that yourself. It’d be like buying stocks on the stock market without knowing anything about the industries the stocks are from.
If there were no suckers, there would be no money, no winnings to motivate the insiders. It requires exploitation in order to “function.”
The next step will be stratifying the insiders. Big bettors, people who hear things and think they know things, suckered by a tiny cadre of the innermost circle. Maybe that’s happened already.
Eventually, of course, there will be motivation to spread falsehoods to change the odds in the insider’s favor. Or to outright direct history to take advantage of long odds.
