The Nats are going lower and Luxon is ruling out possible allies…
I’m happy that opportunity is gaining regularly. Looking very likely that they will be in parliament after the election.
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God I hope so, something needs to change in our political system urgently.
Labour are okay, but not exactly inspiring. And I don’t like the idea of a wealth tax one bit, it screws over retired people. Land value tax is a far better option.
LVT is a type of wealth tax, it is just a much better structure than the greens version.
2.5% is a crazy amount, and I think it will result in a lot of wealth simply leaving the country. There’s also a “how dare you” vibe to it that I don’t like.
Land value is a lot more elegant.
2.5% of the wealth over $10M. It’s not historically outrageous, only in recent times. We do need to tax wealth, and economically it’s likely better than taxing income (I presume Greens aren’t planning on removing that though).
But I prefer the Opportunity 1.7% LVT proposed, which is not on the total property value just on the land. This is intended to lower house prices, which introduces the possibility of having more money by paying more tax. They also waant a UBI which would offset any extra tax paid by most people (their estimates are that 90% of people would be the same or better off).
Realistically though, no small party is going to pass a large scale tax reform. Whatever their policies, they would be lucky to get a fraction of their intent across the line. This goes for Greens and Opportunity.
There were a lot of fears around capital flight when France implemented their wealth tax and it just… didn’t happen. Basically the things that actually matter to economies and societies, like companies, skilled workers, and infrastructure doesn’t just up and leave on some rich dudes tantrum.
I like an LVT, but capital flight arguments against more targeted wealth taxes aren’t well founded for the average voter. Basically. They’re a net good for most people.
Id be very wary about poll results. They are often very bias and used to push some narative, looking at you “Tax payer union”. Just look at the most recent Australian election, every poll had the Libnats and Labor neck and neck, then the actual results come in and the Libnats crumble like a marbel quary in India during a downpour. Typicaly NZ votes for the established parties and The Oppertunities Party, i dont think, has really showen us the stability Kiwis look for in a vote.
National has decided to publicly anounce that they wont partner with Oppertunity because Luxon is terrified that Oppertunities will siphon voters away from National. He is announcing that a vote for Oppertunities is not a vote for National. On the day i rekon Luxon would jump at the chance to partner with Oppertunities.
Its really interesting because i also feel that the whole National, NZ First and Act menagerie is showing itself to be highly unstable with its current and past bickering.
Have you seen KiwiPolls? their methodology is quite good and is effectively a rolling poll of polls.
Opportunity are slowly gaining; looks like >5% is going to be normal in the next month or so.
The current coalition was strained from day 1, the way NZF and Act treated National (due to Luxon’s inexperience) during negotiations was terrible.
That could be an interesting mix with Labour/Greens
I’d love to see them replace TPM as the third coalition partner. Much more sane.
If (hopefully) opportunity get in, no 3 party coalition will have enough to form a majority.
TPM would still be required, their influence would be bluntened but still be present.
Let’s hope Labour’s vote share also goes up as well.
It’s also possible TPM just don’t win any seats as well.
Totally possible. But I doubt they will lose all the Maori seats.
Yeah, most likely they’ll keep a few of the Maori electorates. Which is something of a bummer.
