Olivia Chow Elected
Update:
The polling stations are now closed. We should have final results in a short time. I’ll try to keep this thread up to date with the preliminary results over this evening.
There are quite a number of candidates (102, I believe!) as such, I will not be listing all of them here. I’ll have links to the official results when they start coming in if you are curious about some of the lesser-known candidates.
RESULTS (Last updated at 11:59PM ET)
| Candidate | Percent |
|---|---|
| Chow | 37.2% |
| Bailão | 32.5% |
| Saunders | 8.6% |
| Furey | 5.0% |
| Matlow | 4.9% |
| Hunter | 2.9% |
| Brown | 2.6% |
You can find the official results here: https://electionresults.toronto.ca/
Here are some of the most recent polls for the top candidates. We’ll see how close to the mark they were tonight.
POLLS
| Polling Firm | Date | Chow | Bailão | Saunders | Matlow | Furey | Hunter | Bradford |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet | June 25 | 36 | 30 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 1 |
| Liaison | June 25 | 32 | 22 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 2 |
| Forum | June 23 | 29 | 20 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 3 |
| Viewpoints | June 19 | 35 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Ipsos | June 13 | 38 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
METHODOLOGY
| Polling Firm | Sample Size | MOE | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet | 1030 | 3.1% | IVR |
| Liason | 1008 | 3.1% | IVR |
| Forum | 1037 | 3.0% | IVR |
| Viewpoints | 1007 | N/A | Online |
| Ipsos | 1001 | N/A | Online |
Tory miscalculated by leaving his endorsement too late. If folks are grumbling about the result, that’s probably the clearest thing that could’ve moved the dial towards another candidate.
While I don’t ‘have a horse in the race’ as I don’t live in Toronto, admittedly I would like to see Chow win. That said, the fact that the vote is so spread makes it difficult for any candidate to lead with confidence.
Broadly speaking, we can say this at the federal and provincial levels as well when parties get a majority with less than 40% of the vote, but this problem seems even more profound at the municipal level. Without whipped votes or broad party consensus, what kind of support could any of the candidates command?
To me, this really calls for some kind of voting reform—probably runoff voting for mayoral elections or some form of ranked preference.
